On Sunday, Arsenal and Manchester City go head to head aiming to win the first piece of silverware of the new English season. The strange thing is that the loser might have more reason to feel optimistic about what comes next.
The 2026 Community Shield takes place at Cardiff’s Principality Stadium on August 16, with Premier League champions Arsenal facing FA Cup winners City. In case you’re wondering, the usual London venue Wembley is unavailable because of concerts.
This is the first competitive game for City’s new head coach Enzo Maresca, who’ll be keen to secure a trophy for the fans following the departure of serial winner Pep Guardiola. As a Premier League crystal ball, though, the Community Shield is pretty terrible.
How many Community Shield winners have then won the Premier League?
As broken down by Opta Analyst, only eight of the 34 Community Shield winners in the Premier League era have gone on to become English champions that same season.
That works out at 23.5%. Less than a quarter!
Just 8 of the 34 Community Shield winners in the Premier League era have gone on to win the title that season. That’s 23.5%.
And 10 teams have lost the Community Shield before going on to lift the Premier League trophy (29.4%).
So… is it actually better to lose?🤣😅 pic.twitter.com/ikRsZDz06G
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) August 13, 2026
Manchester United did it in 1993-94, 1996-97, 2007-08 and 2010-11. Ferguson demanded it. Chelsea managed it in 2005-06 and 2009-10, while United did it again in 2008-09. The most recent example was Manchester City in 2018-19.
Since then? Nothing.
Last year provided another entry for the pile. Crystal Palace beat Liverpool on penalties in the 2025 Community Shield, but neither club became Premier League champions. Arsenal (finally) did.
Is losing the Community Shield actually better?
Here is where it gets wonderfully silly.
Ten Community Shield losers have gone on to win the Premier League in the same season, meaning it has happened more often to the losing team than the winner. That is 29.4% of the 34 games played since the Premier League was born.
There have been some spectacularly misleading August afternoons, too. Liverpool beat Manchester City 3-1 in the 2022 Shield, when Erling Haaland failed to score but Darwin Núñez did. Haaland then scored a record 36 Premier League goals as City won the treble, while Núñez notched nine and Liverpool finished fifth.
So when Arsenal and City walk off the field in Cardiff on Sunday, the winners can, of course, celebrate… but the losers can always point to the statistics.
Community Shield league winning history
| Community Shield | Winner | Loser | Premier League champion that season | Shield result predicted champion? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Leeds United | Liverpool | Manchester United | Neither |
| 1993 | Manchester United | Arsenal | Manchester United | Winner |
| 1994 | Manchester United | Blackburn Rovers | Blackburn Rovers | Loser |
| 1995 | Everton | Blackburn Rovers | Manchester United | Neither |
| 1996 | Manchester United | Newcastle United | Manchester United | Winner |
| 1997 | Manchester United | Chelsea | Arsenal | Neither |
| 1998 | Arsenal | Manchester United | Manchester United | Loser |
| 1999 | Arsenal | Manchester United | Manchester United | Loser |
| 2000 | Chelsea | Manchester United | Manchester United | Loser |
| 2001 | Liverpool | Manchester United | Arsenal | Neither |
| 2002 | Arsenal | Liverpool | Manchester United | Neither |
| 2003 | Manchester United | Arsenal | Arsenal | Loser |
| 2004 | Arsenal | Manchester United | Chelsea | Neither |
| 2005 | Chelsea | Arsenal | Chelsea | Winner |
| 2006 | Liverpool | Chelsea | Manchester United | Neither |
| 2007 | Manchester United | Chelsea | Manchester United | Winner |
| 2008 | Manchester United | Portsmouth | Manchester United | Winner |
| 2009 | Chelsea | Manchester United | Chelsea | Winner |
| 2010 | Manchester United | Chelsea | Manchester United | Winner |
| 2011 | Manchester United | Manchester City | Manchester City | Loser |
| 2012 | Manchester City | Chelsea | Manchester United | Neither |
| 2013 | Manchester United | Wigan Athletic | Manchester City | Neither |
| 2014 | Arsenal | Manchester City | Chelsea | Neither |
| 2015 | Arsenal | Chelsea | Leicester City | Neither |
| 2016 | Manchester United | Leicester City | Chelsea | Neither |
| 2017 | Arsenal | Chelsea | Manchester City | Neither |
| 2018 | Manchester City | Chelsea | Manchester City | Winner |
| 2019 | Manchester City | Liverpool | Liverpool | Loser |
| 2020 | Arsenal | Liverpool | Manchester City | Neither |
| 2021 | Leicester City | Manchester City | Manchester City | Loser |
| 2022 | Liverpool | Manchester City | Manchester City | Loser |
| 2023 | Arsenal | Manchester City | Manchester City | Loser |
| 2024 | Manchester City | Manchester United | Liverpool | Neither |
| 2025 | Crystal Palace | Liverpool | Arsenal | Neither |
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