Africa turns to solar manufacturing to cut China dependence. Can it succeed?

Africa is moving to build more of its own solar manufacturing capacity, but the continent faces a difficult challenge: reducing its dependence on China while relying on Chinese technology, components and investment to expand the industry in the first place.

Major economies including Ethiopia, South Africa, Morocco and Nigeria are increasingly looking at domestic solar production, from assembling panels to developing more advanced manufacturing capabilities.

The push is driven not only by the need for cleaner and more reliable electricity but also by a broader ambition to create jobs, strengthen industrial capacity and retain more value within African economies.

Yet China’s position in the global solar supply chain remains difficult to displace. Chinese companies dominate the production of solar cells, modules and other critical components, while Africa currently has virtually no commercial-scale solar cell manufacturing.

That means even locally assembled panels often depend on imported Chinese parts.

Africa sees solar as an industrial opportunity

The push for domestic manufacturing comes as demand for solar power across Africa continues to rise. According to an Associated Press report, more than 10 million solar kits were sold across the continent in 2025, reaching an estimated 148 million people.

Sales increased by about 10 per cent from the previous year, with strong growth in East and West Africa.

South Africa is emerging as one of the leading candidates for local production. Its utility Eskom plans to develop a 1-gigawatt solar manufacturing facility as the country’s solar market expands.

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Nigeria has also rapidly increased its local panel assembly capacity, from about 120 megawatts to around 300 megawatts over the past two years. Morocco has doubled its production capacity to roughly 1 gigawatt a year, while Egypt is developing projects with gigawatt-scale capacity.

This expansion reflects a wider change in African energy markets. The growth of rooftop and distributed solar, particularly in South Africa, is reducing pressure on national grids while also changing the traditional revenue model of utilities.

Local assembly is not the same as self-reliance

Africa’s biggest obstacle is that its emerging solar factories remain heavily dependent on foreign inputs.

Most facilities are focused on assembling imported components rather than producing high-value solar cells, wafers and other upstream materials. This leaves the continent dependent on overseas technology even as it seeks greater energy and industrial independence.

China is deeply embedded in this transition. Chinese renewable-energy investment and related construction projects in Africa reached $66 billion between 2010 and 2024, according to ODI Global.

Chinese companies also have an incentive to expand abroad. Years of state support and heavy investment have created massive manufacturing capacity at home, pushing prices down and creating intense competition among Chinese producers. Several major solar manufacturers recorded losses in early 2026.

China may strengthen its grip, not lose it

Africa’s solar manufacturing ambitions could therefore produce an unexpected outcome: greater localisation without a significant reduction in Chinese influence.

Chinese investment can provide capital, equipment, expertise and employment, helping African countries establish manufacturing bases faster. But without deeper technology transfer and development of domestic upstream industries, local factories could remain dependent on Chinese supply chains.

Trade restrictions in the US and Europe have also encouraged Chinese companies to seek opportunities in markets such as Africa and Southeast Asia. Ethiopia has emerged as a major destination for Chinese investment, while South Africa, Nigeria and Morocco have seen greater participation from domestic firms and joint ventures.

The result is a complicated form of energy self-reliance. Africa is building more solar capacity and beginning to manufacture more equipment locally, but China remains central to the technology and supply chains making that transition possible.