The transfer window this summer has seen some of English football’s wealthier clubs show a greater willingness to pursue and sign Premier League-proven players.
There has been Manchester United’s acquisition of Youri Tielemans, (29 years old, 244 appearances in the division), Arsenal’s pursuit of Bruno Guimaraes (28/153), Chelsea’s fondness for Granit Xhaka (33/259) and Tottenham Hotspur picking up the free agents of Marcos Senesi (29/116) and Andy Robertson (32/332).
An obvious risk of signing older players is the lack of resale value or growth potential. But a senior recruitment figure at one Premier League club, speaking anonymously to protect relationships, tells The Athletic: “The market dynamics have changed exponentially over the last five years.”
There have been younger players, as ever, involved in high-profile moves this summer, most notably Morgan Rogers and Elliot Anderson (both 23), but they too are Premier League-proven, with 85 and 119 appearances respectively.
Several factors seem to have altered the thinking for some teams around the signing of “over-ready” players over those who are unproven in England’s top flight.
A Premier League recruitment source says the growing wealth of all clubs in the division has led to a bottleneck in terms of transfers.
“Youth recruitment is so aggressive now,” the figure says. “The young, potential players that clubs like Aston Villa and Spurs have typically been able to get are not in general good enough (to play in the Premier League right away) when compared to proven performers.
“Only (the likes of) Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester City, Liverpool can go and recruit the guys (such as RB Leipzig’s in-demand 19-year-old winger Yan Diomande) who have the potential to do the job from day one and who also have a high ceiling.”
For teams who need to minimise recruitment risk — given they and their managers/head coaches are under extreme pressure to win now — it makes sense to bring in tried-and-trusted players over the potential of youth, especially if there is not a lot of price difference between them.
One example a recruitment source points to is Tielemans signing for Manchester United from Villa last week in a transfer worth £35million ($46.8m).
Having turned 29 in May, he has international (90 games for Belgium) and top-flight pedigree (this will be his 14th season at that level across Belgian, French and English football) and over the next few years, at least, he will be a better bet in terms of performing at a high level in the Premier League and Europe, which is what United require.
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“The risks are obvious if you have a bad season as a club or lose your job as a manager,” says a senior recruitment figure at a leading Premier League club. “So if you can minimise the risk in recruitment by signing oven-ready players, then that is comforting in a way.”
Resale factor or lack of it, understandably, is a consideration when signing more experienced players. They may provide instant value, but their age can spoil any prospect of selling them for a good fee later. “(Resale) is good, but only if they’re good enough,” says the recruitment figure. “So (resale value) now in itself represents a big performance risk.”
There are now also many outside those elite few clubs with wealthy owners of their own who can withstand market pressures.
“Young players are what everyone wants, so it has led to a distorted market,” says one recruitment figure. Consequently, what used to be a more straightforward process of signing youth can prove protracted.
Tottenham have signed 32-year-old Andy Robertson after his Liverpool contract expired (Craig Williamson/SNS Group via Getty Images)
Brighton and Hove Albion, at the other end of the scale to those signing experience to avoid risk, have a squad where older players are bought in cheaply to help develop the young, heavily-scouted talents they’ve purchased, sometimes expensively.
This summer, for example, Brighton have paid £21.5million for Zadok Yohanna, an 18-year-old winger at AIK of Stockholm. Yohanna had only played in 13 top-flight league matches for his Swedish club, starting 10. But the key part is that Brighton trust their scouting processes, which have proven to be successful over a number of years.
But for some clubs, young players are needed, and they are willing to go to whatever price to land them. Villa had the second-oldest Premier League squad on average last season, so club sources felt they required more youth, and added it in the form of their new record signing Johan Manzambi.
The 20-year-old Switzerland international midfielder is, Villa hope, an exception to the recent trend of younger players at the club not being ready to step up. He is regarded as a late developer by scouts, which is why he slipped through the cracks before this move from German club Freiburg. He’s costing them over £50million, but Villa believe he can make a swift step up to Premier League level.
So depending on your position as a club, you may feel the need to bring in a ready-made, established Premier League player to lower the risk in recruitment, rather than taking a punt on a highly-rated prospect who then may not develop as you wish.
Another issue is that player recruitment at youth level has been reshaped in the six years since Brexit. It has increased complications in the process, so signing older players can help negate potential issues.
Villa hope Manzambi, 20, will be a young signing who can step up immediately (Alex Grimm/Getty Images)
The UK ending its membership of the European Union altered the dynamic of youth football. The new restrictions that accompanied Brexit meant challenges. Workers’ freedom of movement across EU nations coming to an end in Britain meant Premier League clubs could no longer sign under-18s from teams on the continent. A solution, therefore, was for local scouting to be strengthened.
This, in itself, is difficult when all clubs are fishing in the same smaller pool, while the best young talents from abroad, who might previously have come to the UK, may now choose to sign for a team overseas.
Premier League sides are then having to buy at a financial premium and at a later stage of a player’s development. This, again, closes the gap in fees between a young talent and a more experienced head.
“Do you take someone of the level, or maybe risk it all on a kid you don’t really believe in?” asks a recruitment source. “You are caught between many decisions, and that is also dependent on what you already have. If you have some young players, then going older is OK. If you have older players, the odd young player is OK.”
Looking inward and shopping almost exclusively on British shores means a more aggressive, competitive youth recruitment market. A smaller pond to fish in, if you like. And where there is demand, there is inflation, both in fees and what young players are being paid to sign.
All of which has contributed to a lessening of the prior perceived reluctance to recruit either older players or those deemed more oven-ready.
The market is changing, and a shift of focus against the norm has shown itself.
