And so there were four. As it happens, the four still standing at this World Cup are the same quartet who sit atop FIFA’s international food chain. A semi-final line-up for the ages. Aren’t we lucky?
Perhaps this was the inevitable outcome when the draw was seeded in a way that made it impossible for the top-rated nations to meet one another before this stage. But let’s not dig into politics. Not now anyway. Two tantalising ties lie in wait, starting with France vs Spain on Tuesday.
France are vying to become the third team to reach three successive World Cup finals, after Germany and Brazil, while European champions Spain prepare for just their second ever appearance in the last four. By official ranking, it’s first vs third.
This all-European powerhouse affair is a familiar one. Much like England-Argentina, it’s a fixture with a charmed history. Enough to captivate most football-loving neutrals because, well, it also contains a high percentage of the world’s best technicians and torturers. This current cast are primetime viewing.
The question the world has been asking since before this tournament commenced 33 days ago concerns how France might be toppled. How do you deny a front four spearheaded by Kylian Mbappe and supported by Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise and Desire Doue? Most don’t.
But Spain have different license. One that allows them to control and coerce unlike any fellow challenger. Their style starves opposition teams of the ball, able to boast an average possession share higher than any other side at this tournament.
Spain’s patient build-up has not always dazzled but its purpose is undeniable. They have registered the most final-third passes, the only nation to surpass 1,000 plus, with an unwavering accuracy of 83.9 per cent. And because they rarely give up possession, their defensive record is exemplary too.
Leaning into both aspects is how Spain contain France while carefully curating moments in which to hurt them. They are better set up than any other survivor to ruin the narrative about France’s inevitability. Nothing about such a high-stakes tie between European giants should be billed as a forgone conclusion.
But there are caveats. Spain’s artistic expression has only been seen in flashes at this tournament. For a side packed with los artistas, their creative edge is yet to take full form, relying on rescue acts from substitute Mikel Merino to battle unconvincingly past Portugal and Belgium in the last two rounds.
Lamine Yamal has been quiet, injury-stifled winger Nico Williams only able to play a bit-part, while Mikel Oyarzabal’s four goals (scored against Saudi Arabia and Austria) have come against significantly weaker opposition. He has failed to make an impact since the group stage.
Creatively, France are streets ahead. They are the tournament’s second-highest scorers with 16, posting the most shots on target and greatest xG value (14.34). Captain and leading scorer Mbappe is tied with Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot stakes, narrowly edging the race given he’s also registered three assists. And they have no issue sharing scorers and variety of goals around the team, either.
If Mbappe is blocked – only Norway have prevented him scoring this summer – then France also have a a dizzying array of attacking talent just as capable. Didier Deschamps’ side were the first team since Brazil in 2002 to have two players reach five tournament goals in one edition, before England’s dangermen Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham replicated the same feat.
Chances are, France’s aces won’t stop there.
And on such compelling evidence, would it not be folly to present Spain as just as likely to progress to their first final since winning their only World Cup back in 2010? Not by this reckoning. Not by a long way actually. Spain have an enviable blend of tactical supremacy and technical mastery. They are famed for it – with evolution obvious under Luis de la Fuente too.
While Spain historically relied purely on ball retention, the modern iteration of such style is more dynamic. Rodri and Lamine Yamal are two of the best in their disciplines and have made this progression possible. Quicker vertical transitions mean Spain’s dangerous wingers can isolate defenders in 1v1 situations, especially important when your team is built around the Barcelona teen sensation.
La Roja’s upper hand must be enforced in midfield for this to work. Rodri and Pedri’s job is to set the tone, the tournament’s most effective passers of the ball in the attacking phase. The Man City man is also used as a carrier, shifting the ball upfield to Lamine Yamal, who has amassed the most shot-ending carries of any forward (12).
By comparison, France’s midfield pairing Manu Kone and Adrien Rabiot are less mobile, albeit the options and movement ahead of them are good enough to make even the most average midfielder appear elite. Still, Spain’s controllers have the ability to manage that service in hot and sticky conditions in Dallas. If they are positionally smart, the ball will do the work for them.
Plenty will still consider France a shoo-in for Sunday’s final. In many respects, momentum is with them. The fixture even falls on Bastille Day, a national holiday of celebration. But Spain are a unique proposition in their own right. Shift into flow state and they have the potential to foil ‘France the favourites’.
The recent past tells you it’s happened before. Don’t be surprised to see history repeating itself on Tuesday.
Follow live coverage of France vs Spain across Sky Sports’ digital platforms from 6pm on Tuesday; kick-off 8pm
