Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 29th June 2026

Opening prints showed double digit gains as the market looked to build upon Fridays resurgence, though initially there was no continuation and instead the market slipped back to sit close to overnight levels. Fridays COT report showed another modest growth in the net spec short which now stands at -148,583 lots, though gains made in the intervening period will mean that this will be in some way reduced when next published. Through the middle of the morning, we moved back to explore the early 14.64 high, matching it on a few occasions but not breaking fresh ground ahead of the busier afternoon period. The arrival of those in the Americas brought an immediate impact with the fresh spec impetus pushing prices ahead on a path to the 14.80’s, filling in some scale selling along the way though the resting depth of these orders was far less than it had been when Jul’26 pricing had been taking place. The rally extended all the way to 14.90, more than a cent above last Thursdays levels and back within range of the early month 15.14 high. Though there was some position reduction during the later stages it remained a buoyant performance with Oct’26 settling at 14.78.

Jul/Oct’26 was still showing an open interest of 31,413 lots as it headed into today’s session, and while there remains a moderate flow of spot activity the current expectation is for a reasonable sized tender of up to one million tons.     

Having broken from the recent range and surged into the $460’s on Friday the market resumed with a fresh sense of optimism that higher levels are achievable. That did not reflect through gains initially with Aug’26 dropping back to lows of $459.10, however given the scale of Fridays movements and widening of the white premiums some element of calm correction was not wholly unexpected. Through the morning the market was able to bed in and stabilise itself however and approaching noon we were nudging against the late March high mark of $468.70. This provided the opportunity to launch ahead soon afterwards in conjunction with No.11 as the US morning drew in additional spec buying, and having moved into clean air there was little selling to slow the progress. This enabled the price to surge up to $481.90, the highest Aug’26 traded level since last August, although when the inevitable profit taking arrived these highs could not be fully sustained. Aside from the outright interest, as the market surged, so too did the Aug/Oct’26 volume, with a sizable 12,000 lots changing hands across the session. At one stage the differential was pushed out to $12.20 but this level was not sustained and through the afternoon there was a return to hold back in the $7/$8 area. Having retreated on liquidation the final hour was incredibly calm, with traders happy to see a close at $473.60 which maintain the recent positive technical developments.