Too much friction in the system
When Germany won the World Cup back in 2014, pundits called them a “well-oiled machine”. There was a flow to them, a rhythm orchestrated by every player on the pitch moving in concert.
Compare that to this edition of the team. Julian Nagelsmann has coached a Germany side that is bogged down by friction. The moving parts don’t fit together right, they scrape against each other on contact. Even when they are winning, this Germany team is uncomfortable to watch. You just know that something isn’t right.
What does that mean in practical terms? Defenders don’t seem to know who to cover and how to position themselves, but only sometimes. The midfield fails to progress and retain the ball, but only in certain key phases of possession. The attack can score, but also goes missing for large parts of each game. It’s a huge mixed bag that deceives onlookers, looks better than it is.
Let’s talk about the system Nagelsmann started the game with. Jamal Musiala was dropped for Deniz Undav, but otherwise there were no radical changes to the setup. It was an asymmetrical 4-2-3-1 with Joshua Kimmich inverting to create a pseudo back-three, while Nathaniel Brown tucked inside as an extra wide midfielder. Florian Wirtz and Leroy Sané hugged the touchlines as wingers, and the two strikers were given a free role in the middle.
It just did not work. Just to recap a (non exhaustive) list of issues:
- Leroy Sané played as the sole source of width on the right for much of the game. He was unable to beat his man or land a successful cross. Being a black hole in possession meant that Paraguay could comfortably focus efforts elsewhere.
- Aleksandar Pavlović and Felix Nmecha do not work together as a pivot. They get in each other’s way and with both fullbacks inverting, the midfield becomes too crowded for them to function.
- Kai Havertz struggled to find space paired with Deniz Undav. Undav is not the type of target man to draw defenders toward him, which allowed them to focus on the Arsenal star. This was especially egregious because much of Germany’s attacking output relied on crosses.
- Joshua Kimmich tucking inside exposed a huge hole on the right. It was a defensive liability, sure, but it was also an offensive one. Sané, as woeful as he was, had the thankless task of effectively playing without a fullback. That is untenable for a winger.
The changes made over the course of the game slowly rectified this. Leon Goretzka in for Nmecha brought stability to the midfield, and gave Havertz some relief from the defenders. It paid off with a goal. Things got even better when Joshua Kimmich was finally moved to the middle, with Jamal Musiala taking Sané‘s place on the right hand side. Those last few minutes, Germany looked like a half decent team.
It’s a shame it came too late.
Selection headaches an Achilles heel
Just to hammer this point home, personnel did not cause this elimination for Germany. Tactical and selection decisions made by the coach were the main culprit. Given the tactics have already been discussed, the selection should be addressed.
Why is Florian Wirtz, a natural No. 10, being forced to play on the left? Why is there no pace on the squad? Said El Mala of FC Köln could have been a godsend for Nagelsmann in the dying minutes, when Paraguay were starting to look gassed. A little bit of pace on one flank could have opened them right up.
The midfield needed a stable and technical presence. Why was Tom Bischof left at home? He could have slotted into the role Goretzka played at the end of the game, and likely done a better job than Goretzka did. He also has a knack for scoring from range, which could have been valuable when the Germans had no ideas for a breakthrough. He could have done something.
If nothing else, Bischof gives an option at fullback that is more dynamic than Waldemar Anton. If Nagelsmann had him, he could have moved Kimmich to midfield sooner, without compromising on his attacking ethos.
Goalkeeper. What can be said about the keeper spot that isn’t already evident? Manuel Neuer did not ruin his legacy, but he did put a major dent on it with this World Cup. Jonas Urbig proved he can do the job with Bayern Munich, he should have been handed the reins. He may not have saved the goals Neuer conceded (because of the way the system concedes chances) but his passing range and accuracy would have added a new dimension to the setup.
Certain injuries (Serge Gnabry, Lennart Karl) did not help. However, it is too easy to blame external factors for this elimination. Germany did not get knocked out by a superior team like France, they got eliminated by a team they should have beaten.
Is this actually improvement?
Compare this to the eliminations in 2018 and 2022. Is this a real improvement? Well, at least Germany got out of the group. However, the group this time was much easier than previous tournaments, and the presence of 3rd place qualification eased the pressure somewhat.
With that in mind, it seems that Germany have made little to no progress since the 2022 World Cup. In fact, they played some decent football back then, but suffered from poor finishing and several strokes of bad luck. The only thing separating that German performance from this one is a few bounces of the ball.
Aside from the Curaçao game, Germany never looked comfortable or confident. The Ivory Coast win felt like a fluke. A non-repeatable achievement. Which eventually turned out to be the case, against Ecuador and Paraguay.
The game against the latter was an exercise in punishment, with Paraguay doing whatever they could to torment the Germans. They were disciplined defensively but also got away with plenty of borderline fouls. There were so many situations where they could have conceded, especially after the German revival following the goal. But they didn’t.
The way the 120 minutes played out, some Bayern Munich fans will be reminded of the loss to Villarreal a few years ago. Julian Nagelsmann was also in charge back then, and his team hammered away at the Spanish side but were unable to find more than a goal. That game also had a goal which revived the team, but was ultimately not enough.
This type of defeat is something that will haunt Julian Nagelsmann. Germans were ready to see their country play France in the Round of 16. Going out to Paraguay is a shock loss that is only marginally better than being grouped. Since the veterans left after Euro 2024, the team has lacked cohesion and vision. Where will they go next, and will Nagelsmann be the one to lead them?
Sign up for a user account and get:
- New, improved notifications system!
- Fewer ads
- Create community posts
- Comment on articles, community posts
- Rec comments, community posts
