The group stage of the 2026 World Cup is over.
We’ve already seen more games at this tournament than in the entirety of any previous edition, and only a third of the 48 teams have been eliminated.
The contenders will inevitably try to draw conclusions about what their performance in their first three matches means for their prospects.
But does it actually mean anything? Is the World Cup’s group stage just about getting through, and then worrying about the knockout matches later? Is there any correlation between how a team play in this opening round-robin phase and whether they go on to win the whole thing?
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Let’s look at what history tells us by going through each of the previous 22 World Cups to see if there is any connection between how a team perform at the start and the end of the finals.
The first question is: does winning your group matter? And the quick answer is: yes, it seems to. Discounting the 1934 and 1938 tournaments, which were straight knockouts from the start so didn’t have group stages, 16 of the remaining 20 winners all finished top of their first-phase group.
That becomes even more stark when you look at more recent tournaments: each of the past 10 winners topped their group, with the last to finish second but still go all the way being Italy in 1982. That side was a bit of an outlier generally, unfancied after a betting scandal had deprived them of their best striker, Paolo Rossi, for two years before the tournament. They squeaked through the first round with three draws. They’re the only eventual champions to get through their group without winning a game.
Italy lifting the World Cup in 1982 (Steve Powell/Allsport)
Getting to the final isn’t quite as much of a problem if you don’t dominate early on: seven beaten finalists have got there without topping their group, most recently France in 2006. Those that snuck through this year as one of the best third-placed teams might take some encouragement from Argentina in 1990 and Italy in 1994, who were terrible in the first round, only making it through as the lucky losers, but in the end were still only one game away from glory.
Finishing top is one thing, but does it matter if you don’t win all of your games? The answer is no: only three champions in history have a 100 per cent record in the first round: Brazil in 1970, France in 1998 and Brazil in 2002. Technically, Uruguay also did in 1930 and 1950, but they only played two games in the former and one in the latter, so let’s discount them.
Every other winner has slipped up at some point, and it also doesn’t seem to be a huge deal if you lose a game: Spain in 2010 and Argentina in 2022 were famously beaten in their opening games by Switzerland and Saudi Arabia respectively.
Going three for three is actually pretty rare. It didn’t happen at all in four previous tournaments, including 2022, and in the history of the tournament, only 32 teams have done it. Of those, just four have reached the final (five if you include Brazil in 1950, who finished second when the title was decided by a final round of group play), and the others have gone out at every stage possible, from first knockout tie to the semi-finals.
It’s also often thought of as an advantage to qualify early: get two wins in the bag, then everyone can ease up/have a rest in the final group game, ready to go again in the knockouts. But there isn’t much correlation there either, given that only five previous winners had things definitively wrapped up after two matches. Even Brazil in 1970 could technically have been knocked out despite winning their first two.
What about our old friend momentum… Does it matter if you win your last group fixture?
Actually, yes, there does seem to be a correlation, because 13 eventual champions did win their third match, including six of the past seven. The only ones in that recent group who didn’t are France in 2018. West Germany in 1954 are a bit of a grey area here: they did win their last group game, but only because it was a play-off against Turkey, in the days before football had figured out goal difference or head-to-head records as separators.
Kylian Mbappe struggles in France’s final group game in 2018 – a draw with Denmark (Jewel Samad/AFP via Getty Images)
One thing that definitely doesn’t seem to matter is knowing your winning team from the start. Selection evolves throughout tournaments, as evidenced by the fact that only one of our eventual champs — Brazil in 1970, inevitably — picked the same XI in their opening game as they did in the final. Even then, they played around a little with the side in the other two group matches.
Some teams have changed formation, some solutions present themselves as the tournament goes on, and some change pretty dramatically. You may know that Geoff Hurst, one of two men, with Kylian Mbappe, to score a hat-trick in a World Cup final, wasn’t in the England team from the start in that 1966 edition: Jimmy Greaves, a much more prolific player over his career, was the starting centre-forward, but got injured, and Hurst stayed in the team.
Brazil’s success in 1994 was partly attributed to replacing captain Rai, and solidifying their midfield halfway through the tournament. France in 2018 brought in Olivier Giroud after starting group play with a false nine. Four years ago, Julian Alvarez wasn’t a starter for Argentina initially. We could go on.
How you play in the first round of a World Cup is a trickier thing to look back on, and vibes are difficult to measure, but a lot of what happens in the group stages ultimately doesn’t matter.
However, if you top the group and do so by winning your last game, history tells us you might be celebrating in a few weeks.
