Updated 2026 Emmy Predictions Reveal Five New Frontrunners

Voting for the 2026 Emmy nominations has officially begun, and the latest predictions have revealed new leaders in several categories. Compared to early odds from April, a few contenders have emerged in the form of the drama Half Man and the comedy Margo’s Got Money Troubles, along with its lead actor Nick Offerman. Those prior odds also didn’t have any guesses for the guest acting categories, but those have been updated below. Here’s who experts and fans believe are the most likely to be nominated for the upcoming 78th Emmy Awards, which is arriving on September 14, 2026, on NBC and Peacock.

Many favorites have changed in new 2026 Emmy predictions

The following shows, actors, and actresses have the highest chances of earning a nomination for the 2026 Emmys, according to combined predictions on Gold Derby (as of June 11, 2026). There are also new leaders in six categories from predictions made several months ago.

To keep each list on the shorter side, we will only include the contenders that got at least 20% in the odds.

Outstanding Comedy Series

• Hacks – 97.70% [New Leader]
• Abbott Elementary – 95.81%
• Shrinking – 95.41%
• Only Murders in the Building – 94.05%
• Margo’s Got Money Troubles – 89.05%
• The Comeback – 84.59%
• The Bear – 78.92%
• Nobody Wants This – 49.19%
• Widow’s Bay – 37.97%
• Rooster – 27.43%

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

• Jean Smart (Hacks) – 97.44%
• Lisa Kudrow (The Comeback) – 95.30%
• Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) – 94.30%
• Elle Fanning (Margo’s Got Money Troubles) – 93.59%
• Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) – 72.08%
• Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) – 68.38%

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

• Jason Segel (Shrinking) – 96.10% [New Leader]
• Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) – 95.54%
• Steve Carell (Rooster) – 89.28%
• Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) – 82.87%
• Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) – 69.36%
• Steven Martin (Only Murders in the Building) – 63.37%
• Matthew Rhys (Widow’s Bay) – 52.92%

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

• Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) – 97.61%
• Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) – 95.63%
• Michelle Pfeiffer (Margo’s Got Money Troubles) – 93.80%
• Jessica Williams (Shrinking) – 92.39%
• Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) – 88.17%
• Megan Stalter (Hacks) – 71.27%
• Carol Burnett (Palm Royale) – 46.34%
• Liza Colon-Zayas (The Bear) – 25.21%
• Ashley Padilla (Saturday Night Live) – 21.69%

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

• Harrison Ford (Shrinking) – 97.25%
• Paul W. Downs (Hacks) – 94.35%
• Michael Urie (Shrinking) – 92.75%
• Nick Offerman (Margo’s Got Money Troubles) – 91.74%
• Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear) – 82.75%
• Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary) – 73.91%
• Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live) – 58.55%
• Colman Domingo (The Four Seasons) – 27.10%

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

• Kaitlin Olson (Hacks) – 97.22%
• Cherry Jones (Hacks) – 95.41%
• Candice Bergen (Shrinking) – 87.48%
• Jamie Lee Curtis (The Bear) – 81.36%
• Leslie Bibb (Hacks) – 81.36%
• Amy Poehler (Saturday Night Live) – 52.57%
• Laurie Metcalf (Hacks) – 42.84%

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

• Michael J. Fox (Shrinking) – 96.06%
• Rob Reiner (The Bear) – 92.41%
• Brett Goldstein (Shrinking) – 84.82%
• Jeff Daniels (Shrinking) – 84.09%
• Jon Bernthal (The Bear) – 78.32%
• Christopher McDonald (Hacks) – 68.50%
• Connor Storrie (Saturday Night Live) – 22.11%

Outstanding Drama Series

• The Pitt – 97.59%
• Pluribus – 96.54%
• The Diplomat – 95.78%
• Slow Horses – 93.37%
• Paradise – 92.77%
• Task – 89.61%
• A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms – 66.72%
• The Gilded Sage – 56.78%
• Stranger Things – 25.90%

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

• Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus) – 98.05%
• Keri Russell (The Diplomat) – 96.99%
• Zendaya (Euphoria) – 92.48%
• Kathy Bates (Matlock) – 86.77%
• Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age) – 84.66%
• Chase Infiniti (The Testaments) – 58.35%
• Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show) – 36.39%

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

• Noah Wyle (The Pitt) – 96.95%
• Sterling K. Brown (Paradise) – 95.99%
• Mark Ruffalo (Task) – 94.86%
• Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) – 94.06%
• Walton Goggins (Fallout) – 64.53%
• Peter Claffey (A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms) – 54.09%
• John Hamm (Your Friends & Neighbors) – 28.41%
• Rufus Sewell (The Diplomat) – 20.39%

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

• Katherine LaNasa (The Pitt) – 97.80%
• Julianne Nicholson (Paradise) – 92.09%
• Taylor Dearden (The Pitt) – 90.78%
• Karolina Wydra (Pluribus) – 90.93%
• Allison Janney (The Diplomat) – 88.14%
• Sepideh Moafi (The Pitt) – 76.43%
• Fiona Dourif (The Pitt) – 34.26%
• Isa Briones (The Pitt) – 27.82%

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

• Patrick Ball (The Pitt) – 95.48%
• Tom Pelphrey (Task) – 95.02%
• Billy Crudup (The Morning Show) – 92.76%
• Shawn Hatosy (The Pitt) – 90.35%
• Jack Lowden (Slow Horses) – 85.37%
• Gerran Howell (The Pitt) – 72.25%
• Carlos-Manuel Vesga (Pluribus) – 68.17%
• James Marsden (Paradise) – 21.12%

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series

• Shailene Woodley (Paradise) – 97.15%
• Tal Anderson (The Pitt) – 93.04%
• Miriam Shor (Pluribus) – 92.25%
• Brittany Allen (The Pitt) – 86.87%
• Merritt Wever (The Gilded Age) – 80.22%
• Elisabeth Moss (The Testaments) – 53.01%
• Ayesha Harris (The Pitt) – 46.52%

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series

• Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses) – 93.84%
• Jeff Kober (The Pitt) – 90.69%
• Eric Dane (Euphoria) – 86.94%
• Jeff Hiller (Pluribus) – 78.53%
• Bradley Whitford (The Diplomat) – 78.08%
• Giancarlo Esposito (The Boys) – 44.29%
• Colman Domingo (Euphoria) – 41.14%
• Ernest Harden, Jr. (The Pitt) – 34.53%

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

• Beef – 96.57%
• The Beast in Me – 92.32%
• Half Man – 89.87%
• Love Story – 87.58%
• All Her Fault – 63.73%
• DTF St. Louis – 36.93%

Outstanding Television Movie

• Remarkably Bright Creatures – 98.47% [New Leader]
• Deep Cover – 92.52%
• Swiped – 91.67%
• People We Meet on Vacation – 85.20%
• Straw – 62.93%
• Miss You, Love You – 32.31%

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Carey Mulligan (Beef) – 98.71% [New Leader]
• Sarah Snook (All Her Fault) – 97.90%
• Claire Danes (The Beast in Me) – 97.57%
• Sarah Pidgeon (Love Story) – 94.50%
• Sally Field (Remarkably Bright Creatures) – 73.95%
• Kerry Washington (Imperfect Women) – 67.64%

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Oscar Isaac (Beef) – 98.22% [New Leader]
• Matthew Rhys (The Beast in Me) – 97.21%
• Paul Anthony Kelly (Love Story) – 87.70%
• Charlie Hunnam (Monster: The Ed Gein Story) – 85.63%
• Jamie Ball (Half Man) – 72.15%
• Jason Bateman (Black Rabbit) – 65.63%
• Riz Ahmed (Bait) – 28.00%

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Cailee Spaeny (Beef) – 98.14% [New Leader]
• Yuh-Jung Youn (Beef) – 96.45%
• Dakota Fanning (All Her Fault) – 87.31%
• Naomi Watts (Love Story) – 87.14%
• Laurie Metcalf (Monster: The Ed Gein Story) – 83.42%
• Grace Gummer (Love Story) – 76.99%
• Linda Cardellini (DTF St. Louis) – 56.68%
• Brittany Snow (The Beast in Me) – 49.07%
• Constance Zimmer (Love Story) – 22.84%

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Charles Melton (Beef) – 97.75%
• Alessandro Nivola (Love Story) – 88.22%
• Jonathan Banks (The Beast in Me) – 87.63%
• Jason Bateman (DTF St. Louis) – 80.09%
• Troy Kotsur (Black Rabbit) – 79.34%
• Richard Gadd (Half Man) – 67.07%
• David Harbour (DTF St. Louis) – 57.49%
• Jake Lacy (All Her Fault) – 46.11%
• Nick Offerman (Death by Lightning) – 22.31%