Key Points
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SpaceX believes it has a $26.5 trillion opportunity in AI.
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The company plans to launch a constellation of data center satellites into orbit, and Nvidia already has a processor designed to power them.
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SpaceX plans to manufacture chips both for its own needs and Tesla’s.
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In SpaceX’s filing for an initial public offering (IPO), two numbers stand out: $28.5 trillion and $26.5 trillion. The first number, $28.5 trillion, is the company’s estimate of its total addressable market, which is eye-catching on its own. But the second number that makes up the bulk of that forecast, $26.5 trillion, is the opportunity SpaceX forecasts that artificial intelligence (AI) specifically could offer.
As SpaceX continues to build out the infrastructure it will require to capture as much of that market as is possible, that establishes the potential for both Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to benefit.
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How Nvidia benefits
Nvidia doesn’t have a stake in Elon Musk’s space company, so it won’t directly benefit financially from the SpaceX IPO. That said, Nvidia is so closely tied to AI and advanced chipmaking that it already works with Musk’s company.
SpaceX has a data center in Tennessee that uses more than 220,000 Nvidia graphics processing units; the AI start-up Anthropic signed a deal with SpaceX to lease all that data center’s compute power. According to Motley Fool research that analyzed the S-1 filing, the Anthropic deal is worth $1.2 billion per month through May 2029. But data centers on Earth are just one opportunity Nvidia could have to expand its working relationship with SpaceX.
In January, SpaceX filed an application with the Federal Communications Commission seeking permission to launch up to 1 million satellites into space that would serve as solar-powered AI data centers. Quietly in the background, Nvidia has also been expanding its own ambitions, announcing the Space-1 Vera Rubin Module in March, designed to run large-scale AI models as parts of space-based platforms.
While SpaceX is developing its own chips, it could still use Nvidia’s hardware as it builds out its plans and the infrastructure needed for data centers in space. According to the IPO filing, SpaceX needs significantly more chips than are currently available, and accessing a large number of chips is what it will take to “achieve orbital AI at scale.”
There’s more to judge Nvidia on as an investment than just its potential to sell its hardware to SpaceX, but this also highlights its current dominant position in the semiconductor industry, making it a pick-and-shovel play for SpaceX’s AI infrastructure build-out. Even as companies develop their own chips and try to become more self-reliant, for those looking to make AI run at scale, there seems to be no way around working with Nvidia.
How Tesla benefits
Tesla will directly benefit from SpaceX’s success through its 19 million shares in the company. At the IPO price of $135 per share, that stake is worth about $2.57 billion, and if the IPO is a blockbuster, it will add even more value to Tesla. Beyond that, though, it can also gain from shared chipmaking.
For SpaceX’s chipmaking mentioned earlier, Musk announced plans for a semiconductor facility in Texas, where chips will be manufactured for Tesla, SpaceX, and Musk’s other company, xAI, which SpaceX acquired in February. For Tesla, this could give it consistent access to chips through its own supply chain for its Optimus robots and full self-driving (FSD) technology.
It will need plenty of advanced chips for the Optimus robots, which Tesla plans to sell commercially and also deploy in its own factories. Its first-generation production line is being designed to manufacture 1 million robots annually. Its second-generation facility, under construction in Texas, is intended to have an eventual production capacity of 10 million robots annually.
Regarding FSD, the technology will be installed not only in the electric vehicles that Tesla sells to consumers, but also in its robotaxi fleet. Broadly, robotaxis are projected to be a booming market; by 2035, Goldman Sachs Group forecasts the global robotaxi market will be worth $415 billion. As other automakers and tech giants look to build out their own robotaxi fleets and autonomous-driving capabilities, access to advanced chip technology could supply Tesla with a durable edge over its competitors.
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Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
