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Assessing ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) Valuation After A Strong Multi‑Period Share Price Run

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ASML Holding stock: recent performance snapshot

ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) has drawn attention after a strong run, with the stock showing a 6.5% move over the past day, about 7.4% over the past week, and near 10% for the month.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.

That sharp recent move fits into a strong trend, with the stock posting a 90 day share price return of 26.43% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 128.60%, suggesting momentum has been building rather than fading.

If you are looking beyond ASML and want to see what else is moving around chip and AI infrastructure, now is a good time to scan 48 AI infrastructure stocks

With ASML Holding now trading near its analyst price target and showing strong recent returns, the key question for you is simple: is this still a buying opportunity, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Price-to-earnings of 58.2x: Is it justified?

ASML’s current valuation leans rich, with the stock trading on a P/E of 58.2x, which signals a high price tag relative to its reported earnings.

The P/E ratio compares the share price to earnings per share, so a higher multiple usually reflects strong expectations for future earnings. In ASML’s case, forecasts point to earnings growth of about 17.1% per year and revenue growth of 13.3% per year, which helps explain why the market is willing to pay a premium for each dollar of profit.

Even so, the stock looks expensive compared with an estimated fair P/E of 51.4x. This suggests the current multiple sits above a level the market could potentially gravitate toward over time. That said, ASML still trades at a slight discount to the broader US Semiconductor industry on a P/E basis, with its 58.2x multiple below the 62.7x industry average and close to the 58.5x peer group average, indicating the premium is sizeable but not out of line with sector heavyweights.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for ASML Holding

Result: Price-to-earnings of 58.2x (OVERVALUED)

However, there are still risks, including any slowdown in chip equipment spending or pressure on ASML’s premium P/E if sector sentiment cools.

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Another view: what the cash flow model says

The P/E discussion points to a rich valuation, and the SWS DCF model goes even further, suggesting ASML is overvalued, with the current price of $1,749.04 above an estimated future cash flow value of about $758.50. That gap raises a simple question for you: are you paying mainly for today’s cash flows or for a very optimistic long term story?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

ASML Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2026
ASML Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out ASML Holding for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 47 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

After all this, do the recent gains feel justified or stretched to you? If you want to move quickly but still rely on your own judgment, it helps to see exactly which potential upsides are getting investors excited, starting with the 3 key rewards.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If ASML already sits on your watchlist, do not stop there. Broader ideas can help you stress test your thinking and spot opportunities you might otherwise miss.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include ASML.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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