GBP/JPY edged higher to 215.59 last week but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Rebound from 210.43 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 216.58, and could have completed at 215.59 already. Break of 213.29 will suggest that the third leg has started and target 210.43 support. For now, risk will be mildly on the downside as long as 215.59 holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 206.53) will argue that it’s already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 186.82) holds.
