The late break of 0.7807 support suggests that USD/CHF’s corrective rebound has completed. Initial bias is back on the downside this week for retesting 0.7760 first. Firm break there will resume the fall from 0.8041. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7898 at 0.7733. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 0.7898 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8028) holds, fall from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of the larger down trend. Firm break of 0.7603 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
