USD/JPY edged higher to 159.64 last week but retreated since then. Rise from 155.01 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.71. While another rally cannot be ruled out, strong resistance should be seen from 160.71 to bring reversal. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 158.74 support will argue that the rise from 155.01 has completed already. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 158.36) and below.
In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.36) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.
In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resume. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.
