When David Moyes returned to Everton 11-and-a-half years after leaving the club, plenty scoffed.
On the surface, it appeared to be a move from a desperate club, turning to nostalgia to generate some short-term positivity as they looked to stay in the Premier League.
The Toffees were in financial despair, suffering a points deduction less than 18 months prior. They were one point above the relegation zone when the Scot returned to Goodison Park. Now, they find themselves in a new home and hold new ambitions ahead of the first Hill Dickinson Merseyside derby, live on Sky Sports.
Any suggestion of European football, let alone Champions League ambitions, would have been laughed at when the prodigal son walked back through the door. Since Moyes’ original departure, Everton had slipped further and further away from those qualification spots.
Who would have thought that all it would take to have a sniff of contention was reinstating the man who brought them their most recent taste of the continent’s elite competition two decades ago? Maybe that is doing Moyes a disservice, though. After all, he did deliver West Ham their only European title. But that, arguably, was not as steep a task.
A win over arch-rivals Liverpool on Sunday would leave them just two points away from the fifth-placed spot that would guarantee a Champions League return.
The Premier League table since Moyes returned to Merseyside has Everton sitting in seventh, above Manchester United, Newcastle and Tottenham, all of whom have played in the Champions League or currently occupy a Champions League spot.
These are also clubs whose expenditure across the last two transfer windows engulfs Everton’s. All three spent at least £100m or more than the Toffees, but that has not stopped Moyes from using what he has at his disposal and turning them from relegation candidates to European hopefuls.
The key to that transformation has been something that has long been a weakness in his armoury, at least since his departure from Manchester United in 2014. Away form.
Everton’s away form a drastic improvement for Moyes
Since Moyes made his return to Everton, his side have become one of the best performing teams away from home. Only Arsenal and Manchester City have picked up more points on the road, with Everton averaging 1.68 points per game (ppg) on their travels.
The only other spell where Moyes has had a better record away than at home is at Manchester United. At Real Sociedad, Sunderland and across both spells at West Ham, he either failed to reach or only just managed a single ppg.
Given that goals have not been their strong point, with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s seven leading the way this season, Moyes has made sure his side have become tough to break down. That has resulted in taking points away from some big stadiums. Old Trafford, St James’ Park and Villa Park have all been left stunned.
That is how Moyes and Everton find themselves in the race for Europe out of seemingly nowhere. However, ahead of the first Merseyside derby at Hill Dickinson Stadium, it is their home form they need to worry about.
Home form still needs addressing in final push for Europe
While results on their travels have been outstanding, at home it has been a different story. They have managed just six Premier League wins in front of the Everton supporters. That leaves them 14th in the home standings.
Some may argue that it is simply a case of teething problems at a new home base. Moyes has even been on record himself saying that “if you look back, all the teams that move into a new stadium – I think just about them all have struggled”.
Perhaps the new arena has impacted the atmosphere that made Goodison Park an intimidating place to go to. The stadium is more open, so the voice of those in the stands carries less weight. As a result, the pitch may feel less suffocating for opposition players.
The stats indicate that Everton play far differently in front of their own supporters, though, and that is to their detriment. Going forward, the Toffees are far more direct away from home, attempting 107 more long passes. They also average 39.7 per cent possession, compared to 47.6 per cent at Hill Dickinson.
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But it is not in attack where that style of play seems to be affected. At home, they have scored 21 goals at an xG of 20.46. Their record away is 19 goals from an xG of 22.82.
However, when they play with more possession, Everton leave themselves more susceptible defensively. While they have only conceded one extra goal at home compared to away, the stats suggest they are lucky that is the case as their expected goals conceded is nearly four goals worse off at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
By having more of the ball, it appears Everton leave themselves more exposed to losing possession in dangerous areas and seeing the opposition team capitalise. When they are away and playing more direct, they get the ball away from their own box more efficiently which allows them more time to get set when the opposition move forward.
The saying that you hear so often during the run-in is that teams must treat every game like a cup final. For Moyes and Everton, that memo should be tweaked slightly. Regardless of where you are playing, treat every game like an away one. Starting with Sunday’s derby with Liverpool.
Do that, and there is every chance Moyes does what would have been unthinkable at the start of the campaign and brings European football back to the blue half of Merseyside.
Watch Everton vs Liverpool on Super Sunday from 1pm, live on Sky Sports Main Event.
