Six Premier League clubs played in the last 16 of the Champions League this week and none of them won. It’s unlikely you’ve escaped the fallout.
Newcastle United drew 1-1 at home to Barcelona (after conceding a late penalty) and Arsenal did likewise away to Bayer Leverkusen (after scoring one), but the other four sides were all beaten.
Premier League champions Liverpool lost 1-0 at Galatasaray, while Manchester City were thrashed 3-0 by Real in Madrid and Chelsea crumbled to lose 5-2 in Paris. Spurs imploded away to Atletico, also losing 5-2 and withdrawing their goalkeeper after going three down in 15 minutes.
Fatigue has been raised as a significant reason for the struggles this week and it is true that five of those six clubs have played the most games in Europe this season, with Spurs ninth.
Similarly, Premier League players lead the way in minutes played this season, with Newcastle defender Malick Thiaw top and Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk second. Add in the increased physical demands of the league this season, and you can see the argument.
But is it the main cause, or should clubs in the world’s richest league not be better resourced to thrive amid those demands? Are coaching and recruitment decisions more to blame? And what of the individual player errors that damaged Chelsea and Spurs in particular?
To identify the true causes and address the specific issues at each team, we looked into the data, asked our dedicated club writers for their perspectives, and consulted our European experts.
What does the data say?
Fatigue can feel like a pretty flimsy excuse for this week’s underwhelming performances, but it is true that Premier League sides expend more energy during their league campaigns back home. The graphic below shows that their domestic matches consistently involve more sprinting than those in Europe’s other top five national leagues.
But none of the six sides looked particularly leggy in midweek, which offers up a simpler explanation: five of the six first-leg ties were away from home. English clubs win 35 per cent or fewer of their matches in Turkey, Germany and Spain, the venues for three of those five games.
A home second leg is awarded to teams who finished in the top eight of the league phase, but is it really a reward? The format has allowed Real Madrid and PSG to build up a head of steam before next week’s return fixtures against Manchester City and Chelsea, respectively.
Conor O’Neill
Analysing each club’s first-leg performance
Arsenal
Was Arsenal’s draw with Leverkusen due to tiredness or quality?
I’d put Arsenal’s 1-1 draw at Leverkusen down to quality rather than tiredness.
Key players such as Declan Rice, Martin Zubimendi, David Raya and Bukayo Saka were given last weekend off, when Mikel Arteta’s side travelled to third-division Mansfield Town in the FA Cup. They have had just one ‘free’ week this calendar year, which could have more of a long-lasting impact, but conceding a minute into the second half cannot be down to fatigue.
Leverkusen’s sharpness from that kick-off after half-time caught them out, as did the speed of the resulting corner, and it was always going to be an uphill battle for Arsenal after that. It was not until the latter stages of the game that they showed the necessary urgency to hurt their opponents, which will be frustrating when looking back.
What did the coach and players say about it?
On Leverkusen’s opener, Mikel Arteta told his post-match press conference: “We discussed that at half-time and we expected them to start very fast, especially because we knew certain routines that they have on kick-offs, because they had three at the weekend, and still we got caught. We weren’t ready enough.”
Until that point in the game, Arsenal had not done much to unsettle their hosts in attack, apart from Gabriel Martinelli hitting the crossbar with one effort.
Noni Madueke made a much-needed difference off the bench in the final half-hour, with his direct run into the box leading to their equalising late penalty. Asked what needs to improve in the second leg, the England international winger told TNT Sports: “Just our basics. On the ball, I felt like we weren’t as good as we can be today in terms of threatening their box, but these are things we work on, and I’m sure we’ll show in London.”
Who do you think are the best team left?
I’d still say Arsenal are the strongest English side in the competition. A first-leg away draw in the round of 16 does not change that, especially considering how quickly momentum can shift in the Champions League.
Across the continent, Bayern Munich had the strongest performance of the week in trouncing Atalanta 6-1 in Italy, but I don’t think it is as simple as saying they will now go all the way. Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain also showed they have the star quality to quickly put teams away, while Bodo/Glimt’s attacking football was a pleasure to watch.
Call it sitting on the fence if you want, but I was impressed by multiple teams across the eight matches and look forward to seeing how they deal with the ebbs and flows that come in the next few weeks.
Art de Roché
Chelsea
Was Chelsea’s defeat by PSG due to tiredness or quality?
Fatigue can’t be used as an excuse. Both clubs have had to cope with the rigours of playing in the Club World Cup last summer, and reaching the final, which affected the start of this season. This game summed up what Chelsea are. Their good can be very good. Their bad can be very bad. There is not enough to lean on in between.
Chelsea consistently struggle to play well for a full 90 minutes, with careless mistakes and a lack of focus costing them defensively. The lack of a great goalkeeper in the ranks has come under scrutiny again due to second-choice Filip Jorgensen’s performance in Paris. But the score was still a respectable 3-2 to PSG when he made the biggest error on the night with 16 minutes to go. Chelsea’s lack of game management after that was a collective failure rather than the fault of one individual.
What did the coach and players say about it?
Unsurprisingly, there was a lot of frustration. Head coach Liam Rosenior made a point of including himself among those who did not deliver on the night, clearly trying to make it a case of collective responsibility. He said: “The last 15, 20 minutes were crazy in many aspects. That’s on me. I need to be better in moments, (after) setbacks. Mistakes happen, but you have to stay calm in the moment.”
Defender Malo Gusto felt Chelsea attacked too much after falling 4-2 behind late on. He admitted: “We need to recognise when the best time is to sit back, to wait for them, and to not concede as we know we have a second leg coming up.”
Regarding their chances of going through, Rosenior admitted in one TV interview that the fifth PSG goal in added time was “a killer” but then quickly tried to insist the tie is not over. The latter is a view shared by Chelsea’s captain Reece James. Though speaking rather unconvincingly, he said: “Many teams over the years have turned ties around from far bigger deficits.”
Who do you think are the best team left?
The impressive manner in which Bayern Munich demolished Atalanta, a team Chelsea lost to in the group phase, really sent out a statement about their ability to go all the way. The fact they scored six goals without Harry Kane being on the pitch is pretty ominous. Real Madrid showed why they can never be ignored. They always seem to come alive in the knockout phase, as their emphatic victory over Manchester City on Wednesday proved. Arsenal have the best defence and an easier path to the final, though.
Simon Johnson
Liverpool
Was Liverpool’s defeat by Galatasaray due to tiredness or quality?
Three factors contributed to the 1-0 loss in Istanbul: defensive fragility, their failure to finish off chances and a slice of misfortune. And this really has been the story of their season. Liverpool create good openings but leave too many of them unconverted. Then, so often, they concede either on the opponents’ first real attack or deep into stoppage time.
Injuries haven’t helped, but that’s no excuse. They know the schedule, too, and should be handling its demands better. Would an extra day’s rest before playing on Tuesday (their previous match was on Friday night) have made a difference? I don’t think so. Would a change in formation or system have helped? Probably not.
They just need to find a way to score first in games more often.
What did the coach and players say about it?
“You have to give credit for the way, when they get a chance, they play as if it is the last chance of their lives,” said Liverpool coach Arne Slot. “That is definitely something we can learn from them, because we sometimes get our chances and it comes across as if we think we’ll get 10 more. But we’ve created enough to score a goal. In an away game in Europe, you cannot expect 15 chances but the quality players they are usually – and another time, they will be able to – get more out of these situations than we did.”
Who do you think are the best team left?
Bayern Munich. They’re scoring goals for fun even without Harry Kane and will take some stopping.
Gregg Evans
Manchester City
Was City’s defeat by Real Madrid due to tiredness or quality?
Pep Guardiola will be the last person to blame fatigue for a result like this — just go back and take a look at this viral training session clip back in 2017 if you’re unfamiliar with his views on tiredness — and the first to blame himself.
The City manager made several bold tactical changes for the first leg at the Bernabeu, returning Nico O’Reilly to left-back and starting both Jeremy Doku and Savinho on the wings, as well as Antoine Semenyo, who played up front alongside Erling Haaland. With four attacking players on the pitch, Bernardo Silva and Rodri were left exposed in the centre, as were a back four who could not cope once Madrid burst through midfield.
Add to those structural issues an inspired performance from the unstoppable Federico Valverde, and there is logic to the 3-0 defeat.
More generally speaking, there is a case that City are contending with different physical challenges this season, something that could be behind second-half slumps and sluggishness without the ball. Using SkillCorner data (below), we can see that City generally resisted the shift towards transitional, end-to-end football in the Premier League, persisting with their high-possession approach until their lack of athleticism in midfield was ruthlessly exposed last year.
Summer additions and a stylistic shift mean that City, on average, are sprinting around 17.6 per cent more in 2025-26 than they were last campaign, a big jump that is sure to have an effect on some of those players who maybe aren’t used to covering such distances at top speed.
What did the coach and players say about it?
Guardiola told TNT Sports: “We arrived three times to their goal with good actions. We didn’t defend their first goal properly but afterwards, the amount of times we arrived at the byline to make a cross for a tap-in… I don’t know, I have the feeling that it was a good game but not what the result dictates.
“Of course, Madrid always has the ability and the quality every time you lose the ball, the transitions, because they keep the ball and after, they run. They can always do that. But it is what it is. I had a feeling that we were better than the result says, but we have one week (before the second leg on Tuesday) and we will see them at the Etihad.”
Who do you think are the best team left?
Bayern Munich. They’ve won seven games in a row, scoring 26 goals in those matches, and picked apart Atalanta’s man-to-man press with brilliant movement throughout the front four. They have a nice mix of physically strong and athletic players further back who also possess the technique to help break down low blocks, and players such as Michael Olise, Luis Diaz and Harry Kane — who didn’t even play on Tuesday — who can carve open any side.
Thom Harris
Newcastle
Was Newcastle’s draw with Barcelona due to tiredness or quality?
If any of the English sides do not warrant a negatively slanted question about their failure to win the first leg of their last-16 tie, it’s Newcastle. Not only have they played more matches this season (48) than anyone else from Europe’s big-five leagues, but they have the least Champions League experience of its six Premier League teams.
Opponents Barcelona are also the reigning Spanish champions and La Liga’s pacesetters this season; they arrived on Tyneside as massive favourites to go through, given their huge European pedigree.
Yet Newcastle were excellent and deserved to win the game. They did not score until the 86th minute, but warranted that lead when it came, and only ceded what would have been a slender but precious advantage to a 94th-minute penalty. Fatigue probably did play a part in Malick Thiaw giving away that spot kick, mind. Newcastle had managed to stay focused defensively up until that point, but one lapse in concentration allowed Barcelona to pass through their lines and Dani Olmo to draw his foul.
There had been a lack of quality in Newcastle’s final-third decision-making and finishing, while tiredness played a part in their concession on Tuesday, though of all the English clubs’ Champions League results this week, theirs is the one which deserves most commendation.
What did the coach and players say about it?
Eddie Howe, Newcastle’s head coach, said in his post-match press conference: “I think the draw was harsh on us, but it shows their quality. If you switch off for a second, they will punish you. This season has been the biggest demand (physically that I’ve ever asked of my players) because it’s just been relentless. With a number of injuries, especially to defenders, we’ve been asking a lot of players to keep playing, and they’ve done unbelievably to show the mental and physical resilience to keep going.
“When we wake up tomorrow, I think we’ll see all the positives rather than the negatives. The tie is very much alive. We’ve played really well. We’ve shown our qualities. We’ve been really competitive.”
Winger Harvey Barnes, whose goal put Newcastle ahead, told reporters afterwards: “We’ve shown it time and time again that when we play at our top level, we can compete with these teams. There have probably been too many occasions this season where we drop below that and that sort of costs a little bit in the league, but it seems to be there in the Champions League, and these are the games where we hit our top form.”
Who do you think are the best team left?
Genuinely? No idea. Newcastle blew away all visitors to Tyneside in the league phase, beyond Barcelona (a 2-1 defeat in September), while they gave PSG a fright in Paris (a 1-1 draw in January). I think Bayern Munich or Arsenal will probably win it, with the former a better footballing side than the latter, even if Mikel Arteta’s team are arguably more effective at grinding out positive results.
Chris Waugh
Tottenham
Was Spurs’ defeat by Atletico Madrid due to tiredness or quality?
In the long list of factors behind Tottenham’s shocking collapse in losing 5-2 at the Metropolitano Stadium on Wednesday, tiredness probably wouldn’t crack the top 10. A lack of quality, a hapless new head coach who has lost all four of his matches across a calamitous 25-day period in charge, issues with discipline and lateness, and a general lack of belief and confidence within the camp would all better explain that night and their slide towards the relegation zone domestically.
That said, the club’s failure to beef up the squad in the winter transfer window may have inadvertently led to the absences in Madrid of Mohammed Kudus, Rodrigo Bentancur, Lucas Bergvall and Wilson Odobert, who had an increased load over the busy festive period and missed the game due to injuries sustained in January and February. So while Spurs can’t complain much about their recent schedule — they’ve only played five matches since February 9 — the lack of options caused by these injuries (which may be related to fatigue to various degrees) has affected the quality of players Igor Tudor has at his disposal.
What did the coach and players say about it?
Tudor said in his post-match press conference: “I recognise what we are and which problems we have. I recognise that, every game, something happens. Sometimes, it is very difficult to explain. I see also the wish of the players to do the right things. We started good, let’s say. These two or three minutes, I feel it during the game. These things, when they happen, what I said before, in the moment where we are now, unfortunately, it is like that. Even these slippery things happen (several Spurs players had trouble with their footing and even fell down). It explains the moment, because they (Atletico) didn’t do it. The pitch was the same for both teams.”
Defender Micky van de Ven to reporters in the mixed zone after the game, translated from Dutch broadcaster Ziggo: “Horrible. I’m being honest: it was like a worst-case scenario. Everything that could go wrong went wrong in the first 20 minutes. I could tell you the usual ‘We have to stick together’ and ‘We have to work hard’ quotes. But we concede blow after blow after blow. So it’s very tough. Now we play an important game (away to Liverpool on Sunday), which I will miss because I’m suspended. It’s a horrible time at the moment, I can tell you. Really, really horrible.”
Who do you think are the best team left?
I’m not sure any team in Arsenal’s bracket, aside from Barcelona, has the individual quality to beat them over two legs. For that reason, I’d make them the favourites to reach the final from their side of the draw, though a potential semi-final against Barcelona will make for an exciting clash of styles. The other half is tougher to predict, but I think Bayern Munich, who I had the privilege of watching tear Paris Saint-Germain apart in the first half at the Parc des Princes in November, are the most complete outfit. Arsenal are the only team to beat Bayern in Europe this season, doing so comprehensively with a 3-1 scoreline (in north London three weeks after that PSG game). Still, should they meet in the final, I might slightly favour Vincent Kompany’s side to get their revenge.
Elias Burke
How Europe sees it
View from Italy
Are the Premier League teams tired or not as good as their European rivals?
I think this is down to match-ups. There is, on the face of it, no shame in losing to Paris Saint-Germain in Paris and Real Madrid in the Bernabeu. On the tiredness point, PSG, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich were all at the Club World Cup in the summer. They have squads full of internationals. Do we really believe they’re not fatigued? Madrid, in particular, have a bad injury crisis right now. I think we tend to underestimate the pressures and scrutiny these teams play under, which can be equally jading. Instead of tiredness, I think the Premier League clubs need to have a hard look at themselves. Chelsea and Tottenham have both changed their head coach in 2026 — the latter are in disarray. Money has been misspent. Record transfer windows have inexplicably led to imbalances making expensively-assembled squads look embarrassingly thin.
Who do you think are the best team left?
I had the privilege of watching Bayern in Bergamo on Tuesday. As was the case with prime PSG last season, they have the individuals to break through low blocks with exquisite dribbling. They’re my tip.
James Horncastle
View from Spain
Are the Premier League teams tired or not as good as their European rivals?
If you ask a Barcelona fan, they will say neither, because Newcastle physically outplayed them. It is possible that Premier League teams are fatigued, but so are Barca. Real Madrid’s players might not be as tired, but they are definitely suffering an injury crisis. Atletico had way more energy than Tottenham, but was that just about fitness? At this stage of the season, how many teams are really fresh?
It is certainly curious how the narrative has changed so quickly.
In his press conference before Tuesday’s 1-1 draw with Newcastle, Barcelona manager Hansi Flick was asked whether he thought Premier League teams were a level above when it comes to intensity, based on their superiority in games against Spanish clubs this season. That we are now considering the opposite point of view reflects just how unusual this week’s results were.
Who do you think are the best team left?
They’re not having their best season, but this week reminded us of a familiar lesson: you can never write off Real Madrid when it comes to the Champions League.
They have a love affair with this competition that is difficult to explain, but if we’re talking more rationally, the strongest and most consistent team are Bayern Munich. If I had to name the favourites, it would be them.
Laia Cervelló Herrero
View from Germany
Are the Premier League teams tired or not as good as their European rivals?
Probably a bit of both. There’s no question that the strength in depth of the Premier League is a factor, meaning that its Champions League-qualified teams more consistently face strong opposition domestically. It would also be disingenuous to pretend the attritional nature of the football in England doesn’t wear players down across a season and leave them blunted come this stage of the European competitions. But there is also a difference between being a good team and simply possessing a lot of good players.
Because of the relative lack of resources away from the Premier League, the emphasis on cohesiveness and team construction is far greater; the English sides defeated this week all failed because of flaws in their technical or social mechanics.
One final, theoretical point: is anyone in England playing with the attacking potency Real Madrid or Paris Saint-Germain showed in these first legs? How about Galatastasaray, who also played with great fluency against Liverpool?
Arguably not.
Given that even Arsenal struggled with Bayer Leverkusen, who were uninhibited but are hardly heavyweight opposition, perhaps the heavily structured nature of Premier League football is making it harder for its teams to cope with more instinctive opponents.
Who do you think are the best team left?
Bayern Munich. Their biggest advantage lies in their domestic situation: they have an 11-point lead in the Bundesliga with nine games left, so the title is effectively already won. Unlike Arsenal and Manchester City, for instance, who are embroiled in a duel that will likely last for the rest of the season, Bayern can focus almost entirely on Europe.
That luxury should protect a frighteningly talented side. Michael Olise and Harry Kane are in the form of their respective careers, with Luis Diaz and Serge Gnabry completing the most dangerous attack left in the competition. By the time the quarter-finals come around early next month, Jamal Musiala and Alphonso Davies will be fit again, too, presenting a range of threats that will be incredibly difficult to subdue.
Seb Stafford-Bloor
