Julie Roginsky, a Democrat, and Mike DuHaime, a Republican, are consultants who have worked on opposite teams for their entire careers yet have remained friends. Star-Ledger editor Enrique Lavín is moderator.
This week, we do a brief recap of the year in New Jersey and national politics — with a few predictions for 2026.
Q: Nationally, the return of Donald Trump to the White House and his avalanche of policy changes have dominated the headlines in 2025. What were the three biggest stories out of Washington that defined the year?
Julie: It’s really one story, with many different chapters. The story is how fragile our democracy is and how we are slipping into authoritarianism because our institutions — from Congress to the Supreme Court — refuse to be a check on a dictatorial White House. If you need three examples, start with the extrajudicial rendition of asylum seekers to concentration camps like CECOT; our illegal war with Venezuela; and the weaponization of law enforcement to go after people this president does not like.
Mike: This question brings up part of Trump’s political success, or at least survival, which I note is not the same as actual policy success. It is impossible to pick one big story or even three. Just when the press starts to focus in on the economy or the Epstein files, the military shoots an alleged drug boat, or the coast guard seizes an oil tanker, or the East Wing of the White House is demolished and replaced with a highway wedding reception venue, or Russia attacks Ukraine, or there’s a peace deal in Gaza, or someone gets pardoned, or there’s a government shutdown, or some political enemy is being investigated, or crypto must be sold, or there’s an election (so he either must take credit or assign blame, depending on the result), and there’s plenty more. Trump is relentlessly on offense all the time. When outside circumstances dictate a negative story, he initiates a new story. It is undoubtedly a political skill and shows a relentlessness that few others have to dictate the narrative.
What to watch
Q: What three storylines will you be watching in 2026?
Julie: I have given up on our leaders, but I have tremendous faith in the American people. So, I will be watching to see how they stand up to the dictator in the White House. I will also be watching to see whether Trump, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff betray Ukraine to Russia’s Putin and therefore put the final nail in the Pax Americana. And then, of course, I will be watching to see what happens in this November’s elections and in the special elections that precede them.
Mike: I will watch Russia, as well. That was supposed to be solved in one day, and I am fascinated by the reports of Putin’s excitement when Witkoff was appointed by Trump, because the old KGB officer felt Witkoff could be manipulated. I will also watch to see the public’s satisfaction on the economy in the leadup to the midterm elections.
N.J.’s defining moments
Q: The gubernatorial race to replace Gov. Murphy, and the election of former Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill marked the year in politics in New Jersey. What were the three defining moments of 2025?
Julie: There were several that I found fascinating. The first was the election of the first female Democratic governor, who I am optimistic will usher in a whole new culture in Trenton. Lots of governors have promised to do that and I helped elect some of them. None did it but I am hoping that Gov-elect Sherrill will be the first, because she’s had lived experiences as a woman in male-dominated fields that will pave the way for others. The second thing is that this was the first legislative election without the line, which saw several strong assembly members beat organizational candidates – something that would never have happened elsewhere. The third is the end of the Murphy administration, which feels like the end of a sclerotic era that is mercifully on its way out.
Mike: In New Jersey, the whole game is the governor’s election, so moment Number One was Gov.-elect Sherrill winning the election. Moment No. 2 was the governor-elect navigating the primary and coming out as the centrist Democrat, with people running hard to her left and to her right. This positioned her perfectly for the general, so kudos to Sherrill’s campaign manager Alex Ball, and the rest of her team for navigating that. Finally, big moment No. 3 was Jack Ciattarelli being endorsed by Trump. It sealed both the primary election and the general election in the same exact moment. It is very difficult to win a primary against Trump’s endorsement (though Curtis Bashaw did in 2024) so Jack was on solid ground; but his unwillingness to deviate from Trump during the fall — to be more like the center-right candidate he was in 2021 or when he was in the Legislature — ended any shot of winning in this environment.
Looking into the crystal ball
Q: What’s your biggest prediction for 2026 — in New Jersey? And from D.C.?
Julie: My prediction for 2026 is that the MAGA coalition, which began to splinter earlier this year, will turn on each other in even more unhinged ways. The revolution always eats its young and those who enabled the most abhorrent behavior will now find themselves victims of it.
In New Jersey, I think we will continue to see the demise of Democratic candidates who are the selection of party bosses and who are well out of step with the activist energy that is driving the party both nationally and in New Jersey.
Mike: Nationally, I am not 100% there with Julie yet. Some MAGA fracturing will continue, and we will wonder if Trump is losing his grip. And then Democrats will win back the House, most likely, and then we will really wonder if Trump is losing his grip on the party. After that, the 2028 candidates will start heading to New Hampshire and Iowa, and then we will see that the MAGA grip will hold in the primary, especially in Iowa and South Carolina. Vance will be the favorite, but DeSantis and Rubio and Cruz and others will all jump in trying to out-MAGA each other. The only way Trump’s grip breaks is someone winning against his endorsement in 2028, or the party losing the presidency in 2028, which only happens if national Democrats get their act together.
At home, we will be watching Gov. Sherrill’s first 100 days and how she handles the energy and affordability crises her party has handed her.
Editor’s note: Can Americans still have a sensible and friendly political discussion across the partisan divide? The answer is yes, and we prove it every week with this “Friendly Fire” conversation.
