Chelsea can use
Saturday’s early kick-off to put pressure on their rivals at the
top of the Premier
League. We take a look at their meeting with Newcastle United
in our preview and prediction.
Newcastle vs Chelsea: The Key
Stats
- The Opta supercomputer makes Newcastle United the favourites,
with a win probability of 42%. Chelsea cannot be counted out,
though, as they have a 31.4% chance of success according to our
pre-match simulations. - Chelsea have kept four clean sheets in their last five away
Premier League matches. They had only kept five clean sheets in
their 38 away games beforehand. - Anthony Gordon and Bruno Guimarães have both scored in each of
Newcastle’s last two Premier League home games. The last time the
same two Newcastle players scored in three straight top-flight
matches at St James’ Park was Lomana Lua-Lua and Alan Shearer
between April and August 2002.
Chelsea
will be looking to put the pressure on their rivals at the top of
the Premier League table when they take on Newcastle
United at St James’ Park on Saturday.
A victory in the early kick-off would put fourth-placed Chelsea
just five points shy of leaders Arsenal, who face Everton later on
Saturday, and two points behind Aston Villa in third.
The Blues ended a four-game winless run in all competitions with
a 2-0 win at home to Everton last weekend. They followed that up by
securing an EFL Cup semi-final against Arsenal or Crystal Palace
with a 3-1 victory over Cardiff City on Tuesday.
Alejandro Garnacho‘s double was punctuated by a crucial goal
from Pedro
Neto, who restored Chelsea’s advantage in the 82nd minute in
south Wales. The Portugal international has been impressive this
season, with his five Premier League strikes – four of which have
come away from home – equalling his career best.
Victory over Cardiff was important for the Blues given the
turbulence that ensued after head coach Enzo Maresca claimed the 48
hours prior to beating Everton were the worst days since he joined
the club because of a lack of support for him and the team.
Maresca refused to clarify who his comments were aimed at, but
insisted after beating Cardiff that he was happy and “falling more
in love” with his players.
Their impressive defensive displays may be a contributing
factor. No side has kept more clean sheets in the Premier League
than Chelsea this season (eight, level with Arsenal). Five of those
shutouts have come in their past seven league games, too.
Newcastle, meanwhile, have conceded in each of their last nine
Premier League outings. They have never gone 10 in a row without a
clean sheet under Eddie Howe.
Their defensive concerns have been further exacerbated by
Tino
Livramento limping off with an apparent knee issue in their 2-1
EFL Cup quarter-final success against Fulham on Wednesday. That
came a day after Howe confirmed Dan Burn would be out for up to six
weeks with rib and lung injuries sustained in the disappointing
Wear-Tyne derby defeat at Sunderland last weekend.
Nick
Woltemade‘s own goal consigned the Magpies to a 1-0 loss and
kept them 12th in the table. The two teams mustered just 11 shots
with a combined expected goals value of 0.54 – both record lows in
the Premier League this season.
Newcastle do fare a little better in front of their own fans,
though. They have scored twice in each of their last five
top-flight home matches and are averaging two goals per game at St
James’ Park under Howe – a goals-per-game ratio that only Kevin
Keegan can claim to better for the club (2.16).
While Kieran
Trippier and Emil
Krafth are not expected to return until the new year,
Jamaal Lascelles and Nick
Pope could be available for Newcastle. Lewis
Miley may be forced to start at right-back again due to
Livramento’s injury.
Chelsea welcome back Moisés
Caicedo from a three-game suspension, but they will be without
Estêvão
due to a muscular injury. Liam
Delap also remains sidelined with a shoulder problem.
Newcastle vs Chelsea
Head-to-Head
Newcastle have won each of their past three Premier League
meetings with Chelsea at St James’ Park – their best run against
them since a four-match winning streak between 1994 and 1998.
Howe’s men secured a 2-0 home triumph in the most recent
encounter, but not since February 1933 have Chelsea failed to score
in successive league games against Newcastle.
Home wins are a common theme when these teams go up against one
another. The home side has won 37 of their 60 Premier League
meetings, which is the most home wins of any fixture in the
competition’s history.
Newcastle vs Chelsea
Prediction
The Opta
supercomputer‘s calculations suggest yet another home win in
this fixture, with Newcastle coming out on top in 42% of our
pre-match simulations.
Chelsea were victorious in 31.4% of the projections, with 26.6%
of them ending in a draw.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Predicted
Lineups
Newcastle United: Aaron Ramsdale, Lewis Miley,
Malick Thiaw, Fabian Schär, Lewis Hall, Bruno Guimarães, Sandro
Tonali, Joelinton, Anthony Elanga, Anthony Gordon, Nick
Woltemade.
Head coach: Eddie Howe
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Malo Gusto, Trevoh
Chalobah, Benoît Badiashile, Marc Cucurella, Enzo Fernández, Moisés
Caicedo, Estêvão, Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto, João Pedro.
Head coach: Enzo Maresca
Opta
Power Rankings
The
Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They
assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams.
This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the
worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the
world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend at St James’ Park, here is the
Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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