A global strategist with Rabobank says an increased domestic soybean crush won’t replace the lost demand from China.
Stephen Nicholson says it’s an unrealistic expectation.
“While it’s good to see, the framework that came out with China, there’s a lot of uncertainty still, it’s not written in stone.”
Nicholson says China has been silent about its purchase commitments from the recent trade framework.
“They’ve taken one million metric tons out of a reported 12 million metric tons that’s supposed to be shipped by the end of the year. Let’s be realistic; that’s not going to happen. I think the most we’ve ever shipped in a month is a little over seven million metric tons.”
China has purchased more than 1.6 million tons of U.S. soybeans so far this week.
Brownfield interviewed Nicholson at the 2025 NAFB Convention in Kansas City.
