The leaders of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea – a quartet described by Western policy analysts as the “axis of upheaval” – have met in public for the first time today at a huge military parade in Beijing.
China’s display of laser weapons, nuclear ballistic missiles and giant underwater drones capped off a two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit of mostly non-Western world leaders, where President Xi Jinping urged them to take advantage of the turmoil sparked by Donald Trump’s trade war, and work together to challenge the US-led world order.
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The sight of the leaders of China, Russia and India – the three most powerful countries not aligned with the West – “smiling and laughing” at the summit “like good friends” was “almost certainly intended” for a US audience, said The New York Times. It showed how “geopolitical disruption” caused by Trump has given China and Russia “a platform to rally” other countries.
The “tableau” was meant to convey the “close bond” between Xi and Vladimir Putin as “leaders of an alternative world order”, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought to show the US “that India has other important friends“.
Last week, Trump’s 50% tariffs on Indian goods – punishment for the country’s continued purchase of Russian oil – came into effect. India is “drifting closer to China and doubling down on its ties with Russia”, said Semafor, “as Trump’s tariff regime further fractures New Delhi’s relationship with Washington”.
Modi’s visit to China – his first in seven years – “showcased his willingness to mend ties” with Xi, despite an unresolved border dispute. Modi also lauded India’s “close cooperation” with Moscow during a “warm meeting” with Putin, “defying pressure from Trump to unwind India’s dependence on Russian energy”.
This was “a carefully choreographed summit”, designed to showcase Xi’s “vision of a new world order”, said CNN. And, by following it up with a parade of China’s “cutting-edge” weapons and “thousands of goose-stepping soldiers”, Xi is sending a message that China is “a force that wants to reset global rules”, unafraid to challenge the West.
“The message isn’t new but Beijing is betting it lands differently” now that the US has “cut off its vast network of foreign aid”. With the US “shaking up its alliances and causing economic pain” for friend and foe alike, Xi sees “an opportune moment”.
But China’s “attempt to take advantage of Trumpian chaos” has its limits, Amanda Hsiao, China director at the Eurasia Group consultancy, told the Financial Times. For many, the attendance of Putin, “amid his war on Ukraine”, and of international pariah Kim Jong Un, will “undercut Beijing’s message as champion of stability and multilateralism”, said the paper.
It’s clear that Xi is using the parade, officially celebrating his country’s victory over Japan in the Second World War, to “recast history”, with China as “guardian of the postwar international order”. And he sees the projection of military power as strengthening “China’s claims of sovereignty over Taiwan”, towards which Beijing has grown increasingly aggressive.
But China is grappling with its own domestic issues, said the BBC: “a sluggish economy, youth unemployment and plummeting house prices”. Even at Xi’s big “moment in the spotlight”, there is “discontent, even disillusionment”.
What next?
Xi said leaders at the summit had agreed to China’s proposals for a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation development bank, and he pledged hundreds of millions in loans and grants to countries in the group.
But, despite “warm ties with Moscow”, India cannot replace the West’s economic support with sanction-battered Russia, said The New York Times. And even China has been “looking warily at Moscow’s growing influence over North Korea”.
Optics was “a key part of this summit, and the White House should grasp that its policies will result in other countries looking for alternatives to meet their interests”, said Manoj Kewalramani, head of Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution in Bangalore. But “optics do little to alleviate the fault lines that exist in the troika of India, China and Russia”.
