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    「Predictive History」Youtube 擷圖 加拿大籍華裔教育家江學勤(Jiang Xueqin)近日在網路社群引爆討論熱潮,被部分網友戲稱為「中國版諾斯特拉達穆斯」。他的YouTube頻道「Predictive History」訂閱數在短短數月內暴增至近200萬,成為地緣政治愛好者追蹤的焦點。 學術背景與專業轉向 江學勤畢業於耶魯大學英國文學系,現任哈佛大學教育研究生院全球教育創新倡議(Global Education Innovation Initiative)研究員。他曾擔任聯合國駐阿富汗官員,長期在北京推動教育改革,專注培養學生的創造力與批判性思維。江學勤還是英國皇家藝術學會(Royal Society of Arts)院士,並曾參與全球教師獎評選委員會。 雖然他的核心工作聚焦教育創新而非傳統國際關係研究,但近年他透過英文講座,將歷史模式識別、帝國興衰周期與博弈論應用到當代地緣政治分析,開創出自稱的「預測性歷史」(Predictive History)框架。這套方法受艾薩克·阿西莫夫(Isaac Asimov)《基地》系列( The Foundation Series )中「心理史學」概念啟發,強調透過大規模歷史規律與群體行為模式,理性推演未來,而非依賴個體事件或陰謀論。 2024年講座《伊朗陷阱》的三大預測 江學勤的爆紅源頭,可追溯至2024年5月29日在北京國際學校的一場講座,題為《Geo-Strategy 8: The Iran Trap》(伊朗陷阱)。他在講座中提出三項針對美國的核心預測: 1、特朗普將在2024年大選勝出,重返白宮。他甚至提及副手候選人極可能是JD Vance(當時尚未正式提名)。 2、特朗普第二任期內,美國將對伊朗發動戰爭。預估時間落在2025–2026年,動機涉及維護美元霸權、中東控制權,以及受以色列、沙特等盟友影響。 3、美國將輸掉這場戰爭。這將成為美國霸權永久崩潰的轉折點,導致石油美元體系瓦解與全球秩序重塑。 Back in May 2024 before the U.S elections a Beijing-based historian named Jiang Xueqin predicted THREE massive things that sounded insane at the…

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