Putin has ramped up attacks on Ukraine, putting Trump’s hopes of a ceasefire even further away
The US has suspended arms sales to Ukraine, the latest twist in Donald Trump’s changing approach to the war.
President Donald Trump has been attempting to broker an end to the three-year conflict, having pledged to bring about a peace deal “on day one” of his second presidency.
But the efforts have failed to bear fruit. This week, Russia launched its largest drone attack on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv just hours after Trump’s latest phone call with Vladimir Putin.
So what is Trump’s plan for Ukraine – and is it realistic?
Trump ‘wants to be respected as a world leader’
Trump made ending the war in Ukraine central to his pitch for the presidency, claiming it would never have started had he been in office, and that he was well placed to bring about peace.
He repeated his pledge to end the war within 24 hours of his presidency 53 times, according to CNN’s count, though has since claimed this was in “jest”.
But Jonathan Monten, associate professor in political science at UCL who specialises in US foreign policy, said that it “isn’t that Trump loves a deal, its that he loves to be seen as a deal maker.”
“I think he wants to be seen as a respected world leader. I don’t think he actually cares ultimately, about any of the issues at stake,” professor Monten told The i Paper.
“During the campaign, that was part of his persona; he was trying to sell himself as a as a deal maker, that he could get things done where other people could not. But he doesn’t appear to be paying a political price for not being able to end the conflict.
“Ultimately, I think his backers knew all along it was showmanship, but many don’t really care if he could deliver it.”
Melanie Garson, associate pressure in international security at UCL, said that “when one has written a book called The Art of the Deal, I think there is a certain amount of reputational pressure that comes along with that tagline.”
But she also suggested Trump wanted to end the war in Ukraine to improve the US’s economic prospects.
“I think he is a person that like challenges, and there is no greater one than this, but I think he’s also a president that has talked about economic success and from that perspective, is very aware that the US will be able to deliver on those economic policies within a more stable environment, where it’s not paying massive amount of money out to stabilise ‘forever conflicts’.”
Arms sales block could be negotiating tactic
The Pentagon announced this week that it would be halting weapons sales to Ukraine, which officials said was due to concerns over the US’s own stockpiles.
According to Politico, the latest shipment included missiles for Patriot air defence systems, precision artillery and Hellfire missiles.
As Trump’s efforts to bring about a ceasefire continue to stall, some experts suggested it could be an attempt to exert pressure on Ukraine to agree to Russian demands.
“President Trump’s narrative is in that President Biden has been providing too many arms to Ukraine, so I don’t think it’s just a spur of the moment, but its possible that there are times where, from a negotiating standpoint, you seek to shift the external circumstances to see if it can bring people to the table,” Garson said.
Earlier this year, Trump temporarily suspended military aid to Ukraine after a notorious spat with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, who Trump accused of being ungrateful.
But Monten said that “Trump is not a subtle man”, and that “if he were doing it to put pressure on Ukraine, he would say so.”
“Really, who knows? The foreign policy making process and the Trump administration is a little bit more chaotic, and there aren’t the policy process behind a lot of these decisions as there might have been for previous administrations. It really is just at his whim, more or less moment by moment,” professor Monten said.
Dr Marina Miron, of the war studies department at Kings College London, said it was unlikely to be a negotiating ploy, in part because if the suspension was intended to pile pressure on Ukraine, intelligence sharing would likely stop as well – although the US did temporarily pause intelligence sharing earlier in the year.
The Us has shared intelligence with Ukraine since the start of the war, withholding it would have huge consequences.
“I think it has other reasons, like the fact that Israel also needs air defenses,” she said.
“I don’t think this is to force an agreement. It’s more, I think, to do with his domestic situation, his military industry, money, and of course, the fact that this support had been approved by Joe Biden.”
Middle East sucking Trump’s attention
Much international attention has turned to the Middle East in recent weeks, as Israel and Iran exchanged waves of missiles.
Hundreds of people were killed before the US and Qatar brokered a ceasefire between the pair.
Dr Miron said that the Middle East would remain “more important in every aspect” for Trump.
“I don’t think he ever cared about Ukraine; I think he cares about American interests, and Ukraine has little to offer. He has a minerals deal because he had to kind of show some returns for US investment,” she said.
“As far as Middle East is concerned, that’s a different story. Israel has been an ally for a long time.
Garson also suggested that the conflict in the Middle East may be taking up more US resource.
“I don’t think we can divorce the arms sale suspension from what’s been going on in the Middle East and the support that the US is providing to Israel as a committed ally,” she said.
“Trump will be looking at where the US’s interests lie commercially, economically when working out the balance of support. He sees economic opportunity for the US in the Middle East; you can see that in the Abraham Accords [a Trump-brokered deal establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and other Middle Eastern states], in deals over technology.
“Meannwhile, we’ve seen a narrative of Europe needing to step up and take care of European problems, because there’s other rebalancing to be done in the world, including in the Middle East.”
Trump feels ‘extreme frustration’ towards Putin
Trump alarmed allies with his initial warmth towards Putin and hostility to Ukraine, including falsely claiming the Kyiv had started the war.
But in recent months, Trump has been openly critical of Putin, saying he was “not happy” with Russian strikes and telling Putin explicitly to “stop”.
Morten said Trump’s apparently pro-Russian stance is a “mystery” which has led to speculation about possibly Kremlin collusion, with some suggesting it was to charm Putin to the negotiating table.
“Trump wants to be seen as a leader of Putin’s equal, someone who is tough and respected, and he respects people who are seen as tough and respected,” he said. “He did take a little bit of a tougher line, at least rhetorically, although took no real, meaningful steps to put pressure on Putin.
“Part of the back and forth is that he does have the sympathy to Putin, but he doesn’t want to appear to be Putin’s lackey.”
If he choses to take a harder line on Putin, Trump could decide to impose sanctions on the buyers of Russian oil, Moreton said, but the US has limited levers over Russia.
“His only real measure of influence over the conflict is by essentially forcing Ukraine to accept a bad deal.”
Miron suggested that Trump’s rhetoric to Putin was “just political theater”.
“What matters are the actions and not what he says. The things he posts online, he’s not saying to Putin. Everything he has to say to Putin, he’s not going to say it in public.”
To win over Putin, the UK’s former ambassador Tony Brenton – who has negotiated with the Russian leader, said the US delegation must “know what you want, know your arguments, and demonstrate to Putin the advantages for Russia”.
In the ceasefire negotiations, the team must “find a couple of sweeteners” to enable Putin to show the Russian people that the deal is good for them, Brenton told The i Paper.
