USD/JPY’s strong rebound lost momentum after hitting 156.81. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Nonetheless, current development solidifies the case that price actions from 159.44 are merely a near term consolidation pattern. In other words, rise from 139.87 is still in progress. Above 156.81 will target 157.65 resistance and then 159.44 high. On the downside, however, break of 153.90 will bring deeper fall to 152.25 support. Still overall outlook will remain bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 holds.
In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.98) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.
In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resumption. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.
