Most of the world’s countries have missed a critical deadline to update their climate promises, leaving international efforts to curb global warming dangerously short of what scientists say is needed to avoid catastrophic consequences, a United Nations analysis released on Tuesday has found.
Only 64 of 195 parties to the Paris Agreement have updated their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — the formal climate commitments that underpin international efforts to limit temperature rise. The shortfall is particularly stark among the world’s largest polluters: China and India have yet to formally submit their updates, while doubts loom over whether the US will honour commitments made under the previous administration.
Nevertheless, even the limited submissions, covering just 30% of global emissions in 2019, project that global emissions will fall by around 10% by 2035 — a significant shift in direction but far short of the 57% reduction needed to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The UN NDC Synthesis report analysed submissions received between January 1, 2024 and September 30, 2025 and found that while the 64 NDCs submitted show progression in quality and credibility — with 89% of parties communicating economy-wide targets — the gap between current commitments and climate science remains alarming.
“Through UN-convened climate cooperation and national efforts, humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough,” said Simon Stiell, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary. “But this is why the Paris Agreement has a ratchet mechanism, to keep raising climate ambition, until collectively we are on track to avoid the worst climate impacts.”
Major emitters lag behind
China, the world’s largest polluter in terms of CO2 emissions, announced its update at the UN Climate Summit in September. President Xi Jinping pledged to cut economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10% from peak levels and increase non-fossil fuel energy consumption to over 30% of the total.
The European Union submitted only a “statement of intent” at the summit, proposing a 66.25% to 72.5% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2035. Environmental groups have criticised the range as insufficiently ambitious, while Germany, France, and Hungary have yet to forge consensus on a final target.
India is awaiting cabinet approval to update its NDC, according to people familiar with the matter.
The United States presents perhaps the starkest challenge. Although the Biden administration submitted its NDC 3.0 in December 2024, President Trump has since decided to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Experts have raised concerns that commitments made by the largest historical emitter are increasingly unlikely to materialise.
The United Nations Environment Programme calculates that emissions must fall 37% for a 2°C pathway and 57% for 1.5°C — figures that highlight the scale of the shortfall.
UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres acknowledged earlier this month that efforts to cap global warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would fail in the short term. Stiell emphasised, however, that temperatures can and must be brought back down to 1.5°C as quickly as possible after any temporary overshoot.
“The science is equally clear that temperatures absolutely can and must be brought back down to 1.5°C as quickly as possible after any temporary overshoot, by substantially stepping up the pace on all fronts,” he said.
Economy-wide approaches emerge
Despite the slow pace, the report identified positive developments. Some 88% of parties indicated their NDCs were informed by outcomes of the first Global Stocktake in 2023, with 80% specifying how. The emissions trajectories laid out are broadly consistent with a linear path from parties’ 2030 targets to their long-term net zero goals.
All NDCs submitted extend beyond mitigation to include adaptation, finance, technology transfer, capacity-building and addressing loss and damage, reflecting the comprehensive scope of the Paris Agreement.
The UN analysis included additional calculations capturing targets announced up to the report’s publication, including those made at the Secretary-General’s Climate Summit in New York, to provide a broader picture ahead of COP30.
Tipping points being breached
The lack of urgency comes as science demonstrates that critical thresholds are being crossed. The Global Tipping Points Report 2025, released earlier this month, by the University of Exeter and international partners including the Stockholm Resilience Centre, found that widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs is now underway as the world reaches its first climate tipping point.
Current analyses indicate that whilst global emissions may level off by 2030, existing targets are insufficient to deliver commitments made at COP28 to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030 — goals agreed by the G20 in 2023.
“This report lays bare a frightening gap between what governments have promised and what is needed to protect people and planet,” said Melanie Robinson, global climate, economics and finance programme director at World Resources Institute. “While the transition to a low-carbon economy is underway, it’s clear that countries need to shift from a jog to an all-out sprint.”
Madhura Joshi, programme lead in global clean power diplomacy at E3G, said: “Current analyses of NDCs indicate that while global emissions may level off by 2030, they remain far from aligned with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. Likewise, existing targets are not yet sufficient to deliver the commitments to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030, as agreed by the G20 in 2023 and affirmed at COP28. Achieving the necessary step-change in ambition will require accelerated action across all sectors and regions.”
