The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports more job seekers than jobs for the first time since April 2021.
DES MOINES, Iowa — Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report showing the ratio of available jobs to unemployed Americans dipped below 1:1 for the first time since April of 2021. Recent data revisions also show the country saw a net loss of 13,000 jobs month-over-month in June.
While similar data for the same time period won’t be released a the state level until next week, local nonpartisan analyst Ben Murrey with the Common Sense Institute said he’s expecting similarities.
“Generally, what I would say is that the US labor market is clearly starting to slow,” he said. “Iowa has already been slowing, and is no exception to that.”
Murrey said Iowa is not alone in that: Much of the Midwest is seeing similar numbers. While he warned against reading too far into one month’s data, he said the general trend is there.
“We look at the job growth relative to pre-pandemic relative to January of 2020,” Murrey said. “Right before everything kind of changed with the pandemic. We adjust for population and we say, relative to population growth, did jobs ever recover to pre-pandemic levels in Iowa and the answer is no. Relative to population growth jobs never recovered.”
He said the trends in Iowa and the surrounding states stem from what industries are prevalent.
“We’ve seen a lot of growth in tech. A lot of AI driven growth,” Murrey said. “But in Iowa you have manufacturing. A lot of manufacturing tied to Agriculture. You have financial services. These are industries that have kind of underperformed some of some of the other industries that have helped boost other states.”
This is also coming as the Federal Reserve Board will meet next week to discuss interest rate cuts. Murrey said pairing a cut with a slow job market could be a bad formula that causes more inflation.
“I think that’s a big concern because that’s really going to weigh on Iowa households with employment slowing down, people getting laid off, and people not not having jobs, right?” he said. “Or for those who do have jobs in a slowing labor market, you don’t see the same wage growth typically.”
He said a slow job market is not a definite indicator of a possible recession, but historically has been something that has occurred before one.
In a statement to Local 5, an Iowa Workforce Development spokesperson said there are many more factors to consider.
“This is a metric that we monitor, but it in itself is just one aspect of the overall labor market picture,” the statement read in part.
