Trump’s Trade War Upends Soybean Market With No Aid In Sight

Trump’s Trade War Upends Soybean Market With No Aid In Sight

The United States’ soybean harvest is more than halfway complete, but farmers are hurting. China, once the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, continues to boycott purchases from the U.S. as President Donald Trump’s trade tit-for-tat escalates.

Trump’s trade war with China has pushed the U.S. soybean market into a tailspin, after purchasing half of America’s $24.5 billion soybean crop last year—mostly to feed the country’s pigs. But without any purchases from China all year, soybean prices are falling and storage could become scarce.

In the wake of that distress, the Trump Administration said it would spend tens of billions to support these farmers, but that aid has been pushed back indefinitely due to the government shutdown, Wisconsin Public Radio reports. Republicans have estimated that U.S. soybean farmers need as much as $50 billion. That’d be more than double what was given to farmers during Trump’s first term trade war in 2018 when China levied reciprocal tariffs on U.S. soybeans and, as the New York Times reports, “the fallout was so painful.”

The Democratic National Committee is also picking up on the discontent, and Politico’s Morning Ag notes that this week the party is rolling out “a five-figure ad campaign that will target a dozen red Midwestern districts on YouTube TV and other streaming services” ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The 30-second video showcases Illinois soybean farmer John Bartman, who talks about the realities of how tariffs are impacting his livelihood, and says: “We don’t want a bailout. We want a market. Bailouts are band-aids. What he is doing is destroying our markets. And when those markets disappear, we are not going to get them back.”

The impact is starting to be felt in other places, too. Take what’s happened in the local housing markets of Des Moines, Iowa and Omaha, Nebraska. Real estate aggregator Redfin’s data shows that two out of five homes for sale in those areas have experienced a price drop—which is roughly double the national rate. And when we consider that most of the soybeans American farmers plant are not for tofu or other culinary uses—instead they feed livestock in factory farms or are used as an industrial ingredient in biodiesel and plastics—we can start to realize the full extent of just how deep the uncertainty in the soybean market could soon be felt elsewhere.

— Chloe Sorvino


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