Trump’s Strange Love Affair With Pakistan

In his first term, Mr. Trump tweeted that Pakistan had given the U.S. “nothing but lies & deceit” in return for many billions of dollars in aid. The president speaks differently these days. “I love Pakistan,” Mr. Trump told reporters in June before hosting Field Marshal Munir at the White House—the first time a U.S. president hosted a Pakistani army chief who wasn’t the country’s official leader.

What changed? The bilateral thaw began in earnest in March when Mr. Trump thanked Pakistan in his address before a joint session of Congress for handing over to the U.S. the alleged mastermind of the 2021 Abbey Gate bombing in Kabul that killed 13 U.S. service members and about 160 civilians. This capture allowed Mr. Trump to contrast his administration with Joe Biden’s, which presided over the botched U.S. exit from Afghanistan.

Pakistan soon seized its next diplomatic opportunity with Mr. Trump. In April, Islamic terrorists killed 26 people, mostly Indian tourists, in Indian Kashmir. India blamed Pakistan, which has a history of supporting jihadist violence across the border. Pakistan denied the claim. The following month, India retaliated by striking terrorist training camps across Pakistan. Four days later, India and Pakistan agreed to a U.S.-brokered cease-fire. Mr. Trump annoyed Indians by announcing the cease-fire on social media before Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a chance to address his people.

Adding insult to injury, Mr. Trump took credit for ending the hostilities. (Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had worked the phones during the crisis.) The president’s claim, which he has repeated dozens of times, contradicts India’s longstanding policy of not allowing outside intervention in its relations with Pakistan. This embarrassed Mr. Modi politically by making him appear weak. That Pakistan likely shot down between two and four Indian jets on the first night of the conflict added to the Indian prime minister’s discomfiture. In June, Mr. Modi publicly contradicted Mr. Trump’s claim that he had ended the conflict. By contrast, Pakistan thanked Mr. Trump and nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize.

Mr. Trump’s tilt toward Pakistan extends to tariffs. Pakistan pays a 19% tariff. India has suffered job losses as a 50% U.S. tariff, among the highest in the world, hobbles Indian exporters.

Pakistan has also pulled off the unlikely feat of selling itself as a resource-rich investment destination. It has apparently convinced Mr. Trump that it’s sitting on “massive” oil reserves, though evidence of this from explorations is scant. Pakistan has also touted its abundance of critical minerals, which it claims are worth $8 trillion. During a visit to the White House in September, Field Marshal Munir and Prime Minister Sharif presented Mr. Trump with a box containing mineral samples.

The most controversial aspect of Pakistan’s outreach to the U.S. has been its dealings with World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency company whose founders include Mr. Trump’s sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump and Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff’s son Zach Witkoff. Pakistan has signed a “letter of intent” with World Liberty Financial to cooperate on blockchain and stablecoin adoption, and has promised to allocate 2,000 megawatts of electricity toward cryptocurrency mining and data centers.

Will all this last? It’s impossible to say for certain, but Pakistan has a history of promising the U.S. more than it can deliver. Pakistan’s deep ties with China place natural limits on how much Islamabad can do for the U.S. Should Field Marshal Munir fail to live up to Mr. Trump’s expectations, or should the U.S. return to its traditional orientation of viewing India as a bulwark against Chinese expansionism, the Trump-Munir bromance could easily fall apart.