Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are slated to meet on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Seoul this week, at a time when they are each in firm control of their respective polities. Xi used an important annual meeting of the Chinese Communist Party last week to showcase his withering purge of allegedly corrupt officials, including an unprecedented number of high-ranking military officers and even a member of the Politburo. In the United States, Trump continues to unleash a harsh crackdown on immigration, especially in urban centers of blue states, and the Republican Party remains staunchly behind him. Trump also arrives in Seoul having brokered a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, allowing him to promote his stature as a global peacemaker.
Despite the real power they exercise, there are some striking similarities in the brittleness of Xi’s and Trump’s domestic political control, as well as underlying uncertainties about the future of each country and the bilateral relationship. Negotiations in Malaysia over the weekend hinted at the potential for concessions on both sides, significant enough to expect a celebratory Thursday meeting between Xi and Trump. This might allow each leader to return home claiming victory, but it will not resolve the longer-term tensions in the bilateral relationship nor the two countries’ unresolved domestic problems. A fragile truce might be the best outcome for the long-anticipated Xi-Trump meeting in Seoul.
Xi will arrive in Seoul after concluding the 4th plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP. Plenums are the most important annual gatherings of the Central Committee, a group of 205 high-level cadres and leaders who report to the Politburo. Every five years at the CCP’s party congress, a new Central Committee is selected. The current one has been in place for four years, so the next party congress in 2027 will convene a new Central Committee and likely herald Xi Jinping’s fourth five-year term.
