Much like last campaign, the 2025–26 La Liga title race is shaping up to be a photo-finish between Barcelona and Real Madrid.
The two powerhouses have traded blows all season long, taking turns atop the table in what has been an inconsistent, yet rather exciting battle for the Spanish crown. The Catalans currently sit four points clear of Los Blancos at the summit—a gap that could have gotten even larger this weekend.
Barcelona were undoubtedly hoping Atlético Madrid could take points off their city rivals on Sunday evening; after all, Diego Simeone’s men had done so in the previous six Madrid derbies in La Liga. Yet the 15-time European champions, who controversially went down to 10 men in the later stages, secured a 3–2 comeback victory to maintain pressure on the league-leaders.
The all-important win keeps Real Madrid in the La Liga title race, which could ultimately come down to May’s El Clásico. Given its recent form, Álvaro Arbeloa’s side will like its chances of denying the defending champions from going back-to-back.
But how does Opta’s supercomputer rate Los Blancos’ chances of securing their record 37th La Liga title?
Supercomputer’s Predicted 2025–26 La Liga Table
La Liga Title Race
|
Pos. |
Team |
Current Points |
Expected Points |
Title Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Barcelona |
73 |
91.37 |
73.20 |
|
2. |
Real Madrid |
69 |
87.83 |
26.80 |
|
3. |
Atlético Madrid |
57 |
73.08 |
0.00 |
|
4. |
Villarreal |
58 |
72.44 |
0.00 |
Despite Real Madrid’s massive victory over Atlético Madrid, Opta still gives Barcelona the overwhelming edge in the La Liga title race. The Catalans have a projected 73.20% chance of successfully defending the Spanish crown.
Flick’s men are expected to tally around 91 points come the final matchday, three more than their league-winning haul last season. The supercomputer believes Barcelona will come away with about 18 points from their final nine La Liga fixtures.
It might sound like there are plenty of points being left on the table for the Catalans, but Los Blancos are still not predicted to catch up. In fact, Opta has Real Madrid finishing 2025–26 with close to 88 points—three shy of their bitter rivals.
The 15-time European champions only have a 26.80% chance of reaching the mountaintop in Spain, a percentage that was considerably higher before they suffered back-to-back league defeats to Osasuna and Getafe a few weeks back.
Still, the odds are greater than Atlético Madrid and Villarreal’s nonexistent chances of claiming La Liga glory.
How Real Madrid’s Next Five La Liga Games Compare to Barcelona’s
|
Barcelona (73 points) |
Real Madrid (69 points) |
|---|---|
|
Atlético Madrid (A) – April 5 |
Mallorca (A) – April 4 |
|
Espanyol (H) – April 11 |
Girona (H) – April 10 |
|
Celta Vigo (H) – April 22 |
Alavés (H) – April 22 |
|
Getafe (A) – April 26 |
Real Betis (A) – April 26 |
|
Osasuna (A) – May 3 |
Espanyol (A) – May 3 |
Barcelona return from the March international break to face the second-biggest test left on their domestic calendar: Atlético Madrid. The team’s last trip to the Metropolitano ended in a humbling 4–0 defeat.
The schedule does not get much easier for Flick’s side. In between the Champions League quarterfinals, where Barcelona will square off with Atlético Madrid, they must host an always tricky Catalan derby before welcoming a formidable Celta Vigo to the Camp Nou.
Then comes two daunting away trips to Getafe and Osasuna, two teams with enough quality to topple Real Madrid just a few weeks ago.
Speaking of, Los Blancos have a much simpler road coming once domestic action resumes. Matches against relegation-battling Mallorca and Alavés, as well as a struggling Girona side should be no trouble for Arbeloa’s men.
Real Betis pose a much larger threat, but Real Madrid already defeated them 5–1 in the reverse fixture. Espanyol, meanwhile, have only overcome the Spanish giants once in their last six meetings.
