The race for the Premier League title captures the majority of the headlines, but arguably things are more even more tense at the other end of the standings.
Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley both appear to have given themselves too much to do in the fight to avoid relegation, but the battle above them is heating up as an extraordinary set of recent results has bunched things right up.
Positive results for West Ham United—a 1–0 win over Fulham—and Nottingham Forest—a surprise 2–2 draw at Manchester City—means the two sides and now level on 28 points, and the biggest surprise comes just one position and one point higher. Tottenham Hotspur are in complete freefall, with Thursday’s 3–1 defeat to Crystal Palace the newest of new lows.
Leeds United are not safe from this fight yet either. Indeed, just three points separate Daniel Farke’s side in 15th and current relegation placeholders West Ham, making this the sort of dogfight you can’t take your eyes off.
After Thursday’s shock result in north London, here’s how Opta’s supercomputer sees the race to avoid relegation playing out.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Relegation Battle
|
Position |
Club |
Current Points |
Expected Points |
Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
15. |
Leeds |
31 |
42.09 |
8.09% |
|
16. |
Tottenham |
29 |
40.04 |
16.10% |
|
17. |
Nott’m Forest |
28 |
39.08 |
26.88% |
|
18. |
West Ham |
28 |
37.49 |
49.53% |
|
19. |
Burnley |
19 |
27.07 |
99.36% |
|
20. |
Wolves |
16 |
24.62 |
99.92% |
Wolverhampton Wanderers continue to shrink their odds after a draw with Arsenal and back-to-back wins over Aston Villa and Liverpool. Rob Edwards’s side have been excellent in recent weeks but sealed their fate months ago, having waited until the 20th game of the season for their first victory.
Above them, Burnley are another whose relegation is effectively certain. Already 10 points adrift, the supercomputer is backing the Clarets to find just eight more points, with their return to the Championship expected to be confirmed well before the final day.
Now, time to get into the juicy stuff.
The supercomputer is sticking with the current layout of the standings, backing West Ham to fall to England’s second tier in a battle which appears destined to go down to the wire.
Forest should still finish two points clear, with Tottenham one extra point ahead as the final team to meet that magical 40-point threshold.
Opta gives Igor Tudor’s side a 16.10% chance of a humiliating relegation, which is almost double their last prediction before Thursday’s defeat. An unexpected slip-up can clearly have drastic consequences and Spurs simply cannot afford many more. There may be more glamorous fixtures, but games do not come much bigger than the meeting between Tottenham and Forest on March 22, just before this month’s international break.
Worryingly from a Spurs perspective, Opta’s separate model of Expected Premier League Standings actually has Forest one place above them, highlighting the difficulty of that fixture for Tudor’s floundering group.
Finally, Leeds are projected to end the season with a comfortable gap to the drop zone. Five points could separate the Yorkshire outfit and West Ham in 18th, with the two sides set to do battle on the final day of the season.
