Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Melissa is forecast to slam the southern coast of Jamaica on the morning of Oct. 28 with sustained winds of up to 175 mph, even higher gusts and a life-threatening storm surge, leaving a wake of destruction across the island before focusing its ferocity on southeastern Cuba.
Torrential downpours that could produce 15 to 30 inches of rain, with as much as 40 inches of rain possible in isolated locations, are also expected to contribute to deadly landslides in the island’s mountainous terrain, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
With its fierce intensification, Melissa became the strongest tropical cyclone of 2025 globally, “beating out the Western Pacific’s Typhoon Ragasa,” meteorologist Jeff Masters wrote for Yale Climate Connections on Oct. 27. At least 7 deaths in the Caribbean had been blamed on the dangerous hurricane as of Oct. 27.
At 5 a.m. ET on Oct. 28, the National Hurricane Center reported Melissa was centered about 115 miles west-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and 290 miles southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba. The hurricane had begun moving toward the north-northeast, but was moving at only about 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds near 175 mph.
Hurricane Melissa becomes first Category 5 hurricane to strike Jamaica
Jamaica’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness and other officials urged Jamaicans to seek safe shelter and to stay off the roads until the worst of the hurricane passes over. The island’s residents were also encouraged to be prepared for impacts they have not experienced with previous hurricanes.
“Hour by hour, it is becoming apparent that the impact of Hurricane Melissa will be greater than the impact of Hurricane Beryl, certainly in terms of rainfall and flooding,” Holness said.
Melissa is expected to be the first Category 5 hurricane to strike the island. That’s the highest category possible on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It’s also forecast to bring up to a 13-foot storm surge, topped by large battering waves, on the south coast of Jamaica, and a surge almost as high where it’s forecast to strike the southeastern coast of Cuba, the hurricane center said.
Torrential rains had already been falling for days, and tropical storm-force winds and rain in Melissa’s outer bands had begun to batter Jamaica earlier in the day on Oct. 27. The hurricane was forecast to make landfall near the Black River and begin increasing in speed.
Within the catastrophic winds of the eyewall, “total structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30% stronger” than the winds at the surface, the hurricane center warned. If the estimated sustained winds at the surface remain at 175 mph, that would put wind speeds at higher elevations well over 200 mph.
The storm could cause “extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication outages,” isolating communities, the center said.
Even if the hurricane’s fiercest winds begin to wane as the hurricane approaches land, the hurricane center warned there is little difference in the destructive power of winds that are Category 4 (130-156 mph) as opposed to Category 5, (greater than 157 mph).
Melissa powered up over the warm waters in the Caribbean on Oct. 25-26, its winds increasing by 65 mph in one 15-hour period. Its low barometric pressure and high winds moved Melissa into a rarified group of the most dangerous hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, researchers said.
Deaths, injuries reported in the islands as Hurricane Melissa approaches
At least three people died in Jamaica as they were preparing for Hurricane Melissa, Christopher Tufton, the country’s minister of health and wellness, said on Oct. 27.
The deaths, which occurred in the parishes of Hanover, Saint Catherine and Saint Elizabeth, happened while trees were being cut down, Tufton said. Two people died after trees fell on them, including one health worker who was airlifted to a hospital and later died of his injuries. The third case involved a person who was also electrocuted, the health minister said.
Another 13 people were injured, according to Tufton, most after falling from ladders or roofs while trying to prepare for the storm.
At least four deaths also had been reported in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by the evening of Oct. 27, according to Reuters.
Hurricane Melissa is a dangerous storm
As Melissa’s pressure dropped and winds increased on Monday, Oct. 27, it began working its way into the history books. It’s the third Category 5 hurricane of the Atlantic season.
The lower the pressure, the more powerful the hurricane, Phil Klotzbach, a senior hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, said in a post on X.
When its pressure plummeted to 901 millibars in a 2 a.m. update on Oct. 28, Melissa became the sixth lowest pressure Atlantic hurricane since researchers began consistently recording pressures in 1979, according to data from Klotzbach.
Klotzbach listed the hurricanes by lowest pressure as:
- Wilma (2005): 882
- Gilbert (1988): 888
- Milton (2024): 895
- Rita (2005): 895
- Allen (1980): 899
- Melissa (2025): 901
- Katrina (2005): 902
Only five other hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher have made landfall in Jamaica, according to historical records, Klotzbach said. Hurricane Gilbert, which made landfall with maximum winds of 130 mph in 1988, is the strongest storm on record to make a direct landfall on the island.
Turbulence in the eye of the powerful hurricane forced one reconnaissance flight with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to depart the eye of the storm early on Oct. 27, according to the hurricane center.
Hurricane Melissa promises feet of rain in Jamaica. How it measures up
A forecast for several feet of rain is rare, but not unheard of during fall storms in Jamaica.
2010 – Hurricane Nicole matched that, but in less time, dropping 37.42 inches of rain at Belleisle, Jamaica, over five days, the hurricane center reported. Most of the island received 1 to 2 feet of rain during the same period. More than 13 people died, and damage to the country’s infrastructure was reported at roughly $235 million.
2001 – During the last few days of October and the first few days of November in 2001, slow-moving Hurricane Michelle helped cause widespread heavy rains over Central America and Jamaica, according to the hurricane center. Rainfall totals over 10 days were as high as 37.44 inches at Comfort Castle, Jamaica. Two deaths were reported in Jamaica, and five deaths were reported in Cuba.
1963 – Hurricane Flora reportedly dropped 60 inches of rain in Silver Hill, Jamaica, and 100.39 inches in Santiago de Cuba, Cuba, according to a historical report by David Roth, a NOAA meteorologist.
1909 – Historical records, including a monthly review by the U.S. Weather Bureau, show a record of 135 inches of rain at Silver Hill over eight days from Nov. 4 to Nov. 11.
Contributing: Reuters
Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, has written about hurricanes, tornadoes and violent weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
