Indonesia’s coffee production is expected to climb to 12.5 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2025/26 market year (April to March), up 18% from 2024/25, as robusta rebounds from severe weather, according to the latest semi-annual coffee report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Jakarta.
Green coffee exports are now forecast at 7.8 million bags, up 27% from last year amid strong global demand for robusta and a weaker rupiah.
The revised estimates would push world coffee production to a record 178.8 million bags, according to a December 2025 FAS estimate, with Indonesia and Ethiopia hitting record crops even as Brazil and Colombia experience down crops.
[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Robusta Driving the Production Rebound
The 12.5 million bag estimate, up from the previous FAS estimate of 11.3 million bags, is being driven by robusta production, which is expected to account for 11 million bags in 2025/26.
The biggest gains are in lowland robusta areas in southern Sumatra, including Lampung, Bengkulu and South Sumatra, where trees recovered faster than expected from a 2023/24 weather shock. Better rainfall patterns, more consistent pruning and higher input use have also helped to boost yields.
Indonesia remains one of the world’s key green coffee producers, accounting for approximately 5% of the global trade, according to a recent World Coffee Research estimate.
European market data show Indonesia as the second largest robusta exporter to the region, with roughly 85% of its shipments to Europe made up of robusta.
Exports Up Globally, Shaped by Tariffs and Currency
FAS lifted its forecast for 2025/26 green coffee exports to 7.8 million bags, compared to 6.1 million in 2024/25. Shipments from April through August 2025 were already 83% higher than the same period a year earlier, helped by the rupiah’s roughly 3% depreciation against the U.S. dollar.
The United States remains a major buyer, though its share dropped to about 9% of Indonesia’s green coffee exports in the first half of 2025/26, down from 12% a year earlier. Exports to the U.S. slowed after reciprocal tariffs were imposed in August, yet are expected to recover now that those tariffs have been waived.
Other top export markets include Egypt, Belgium, Malaysia, Vietnam, Russia, Japan and Germany, which together account for about two-thirds of shipments.
Domestic Demand and Stocks
Domestic consumption is expected to hold near 4.81 million bags in 2025/26, up only slightly from last year. FAS reports that higher coffee prices and weak consumer purchasing power are pushing many drinkers toward cheaper blends. Street vendors and mobile hawkers selling ready-to-drink coffee from electric carts are driving growth, offsetting weaker demand for higher-end products.
Ending stocks in Indonesia are forecast at 748,000 bags in 2025/26, up from 713,000 a year earlier but still modest compared to historical volumes.
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