Welcome to week 26 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where I’m starting to feel like one of the Wet Bandits, the hapless villains in Home Alone, outwitted by a child at every turn.
It was all going so well. I was top of the table, not so much satisfied but relieved that I was on course to escape from this thankless exercise with a shred of credibility intact by showing that I was better at predicting football results than an algorithm, the readers and — obviously — a six-year-old boy.
But little Wilfred, like Kevin McCallister of Home Alone, had other ideas. Not only did he knock me off the top of the table last week, but he followed that by top-scoring again, picking up another 11 points at the weekend to my miserable four.
And now I’m not only eight points adrift of Wilfred, but in danger of being overtaken by the subscribers, for whom Arsenal supporter Peter, from Dublin, landed seven points.
Each week since the season began in August, four of us — a guest subscriber, an algorithm, Wilfred and I — have been predicting the Premier League results.
We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so Wilfred got four points for those two correct scorelines (Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa and Wolves 1-3 Chelsea) because they weren’t matched by anyone else.
Peter also got four points for the subscribers by predicting a 2-0 win for Manchester United over Tottenham Hotspur.
So Wilfred is now running clear at the top, the subscribers have me in their sights and the only consolation for me is that the algorithm is stuck at the bottom of the table, having gone with draws for doomed Wolves and Burnley on Saturday.
It’s interesting to note that the weekend brought up two games where we all went for the same scoreline (Leeds 1-1 Nottingham Forest and Arsenal 2-0 Sunderland) … and we were all wrong, although that Arsenal scoreline was correct until the 94th minute.
Anyway, we go again. This week’s guest subscriber is James, a 27-year-old Manchester United fan from Norwich. Good luck, James.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
West Ham vs Manchester United, Tuesday, 8.15pm UK/3.15pm ET
James says: “493 days. Never before have I been more excited that someone might get a haircut. Man United do have their work cut out though, against an improving, stylistically well-matched West Ham side. I expect United’s set-piece dominance to decide this, but not before some nervy moments.”
West Ham 1-2 Manchester United
Oli says: “Exciting times for Manchester United supporters after four straight wins — and none more so than Frank Ilett, the Spain-based fan who has gone viral after declaring in October 2024 he wasn’t going to get his hair cut until they won five games in a row. I wonder whether there is a part of Ilett that secretly hopes they fall short of five in a row. He’s now up to 1.2million Instagram followers and just short of a million on TikTok. And his club’s future is not going to be defined by whether they win five games in a row. But they’re playing well under Michael Carrick and game five is West Ham away, so it might just be time for Frank to contact the finest sheep shearer in Castellon.”
West Ham 0-2 Manchester United
Carrick has had a great start as United interim head coach (Carl Recine/Getty Images)
Oli’s other predictions
Chelsea vs Leeds
How good is it to see Cole Palmer enjoying himself again? His first two goals against Wolves on Saturday were penalties, but I loved the timing of his run and the confidence of the finish for his third. Leeds won’t give Chelsea anything like so much space, but, with Palmer and Joao Pedro coming into form, I fancy a very hard-fought home win.
Chelsea 2-1 Leeds
Everton vs Bournemouth
I’m struggling to make sense of Everton. It’s not just the difference between Everton at home (poor) and Everton away (excellent). Lately, as Patrick Boyland writes here, it’s also the difference between first-half Everton (poor) and second-half Everton (excellent). They’re riding their luck at the moment, but a bit of momentum and positivity could carry them to a first home win since December 6.
Everton 1-0 Bournemouth
Tottenham vs Newcastle
George Caulkin describes this season’s Newcastle as “soft”, so how are we to regard this fixture? El softico? Unresistant force meets immaterial object? There is a real vulnerability about both of these teams at the moment, but I will say with some hesitation that I find a Newcastle win easier to imagine. Or perhaps what I find easiest to imagine is a Tottenham defeat — and the howls of derision that would follow at the final whistle.
Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle
Aston Villa vs Brighton
Villa’s title challenge has petered out after just two wins in their last seven games. The challenge now is to ensure that their pursuit of Champions League qualification does not descend into a dogfight. This seems like a good opportunity to get going again. Brighton have won only once (against Burnley) in their past 12 Premier League games and, as Andy Naylor outlines here, there is growing dissatisfaction from the terraces towards coach Fabian Hurzeler. When it comes to stopping the rot, there are no obvious solutions.
Aston Villa 2-0 Brighton
Crystal Palace vs Burnley
After a much-needed win at Brighton on Sunday, can Crystal Palace rediscover a much-needed sense of optimism and direction? Possibly. Their next four games (Burnley and Wolves at home in the Premier League and a two-legged Conference League play-off against HSK Zrinjski) seem to offer an opportunity to build momentum. Burnley played well at times against West Ham on Saturday, but it never seems to be enough.
Crystal Palace 2-0 Burnley
Manchester City vs Fulham
Do you know what I liked most about City’s win at Anfield on Sunday? Bernardo Silva scurrying to retrieve the ball from the Liverpool net after his 84th-minute equaliser and plonking the ball on the centre spot, ready to go again. Their second-half performance had been poor to that point — honourable exceptions Gianluigi Donnarumma, Marc Guehi, Matheus Nunes and Bernardo — but the City captain was determined to demonstrate to his team-mates and his opponents (and perhaps Arsenal) that they were ready to go for the win, which of course they got. If they can beat Fulham to reduce the deficit at the gap to three points, Arsenal will feel the pressure at Brentford on Thursday evening.
Manchester City 2-0 Fulham
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves
What a horrible season it has been for these two clubs. Wolves are resigned to relegation and Forest haven’t been out of the bottom five since mid-September. I keep thinking Forest have begun to turn a corner, but then comes another limp defeat. This is, on paper, the easiest fixture of the season, but nothing seems easy for Forest at the moment.
Nottingham Forest 1-0 Wolves
Sunderland 2-2 Liverpool
The first thing that comes to mind when I see this fixture is … the beach ball. Many of you will know exactly what I mean, but it strikes me that some of you, who might not have been following the Premier League in 2009, will be wondering what on earth I am about. It’s a mad story, which was revisited 10 years later by James Pearce here. Anyway, this is precisely the kind of game Sunderland’s players and supporters have enjoyed this season — and precisely the kind of game that Liverpool, after another last-gasp defeat on Sunday, might not.
Sunderland 2-2 Liverpool
Brentford vs Arsenal
In the modern Premier League landscape, this has become what Blackburn Rovers or Bolton Wanderers away was for the great Arsenal title-winning teams of the early 2000s. Brentford will test the leaders in a range of ways — long throws, corner kicks, quick-fire counter-attacks — that make them the most awkward opponents in the Premier League. The schedule means that Arsenal’s lead, which stood at nine points on Saturday evening, might be down to just three by the time they kick off on Thursday. It points towards a bruising, ugly game with long delays before every set piece. Unusually for a leading team, Arsenal might relish that.
Brentford 1-2 Arsenal
