Welcome to week 25 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where we have a new leader… and he’s six years old.
When we launched this feature back in August, and it was proposed that I would be up against a six-year-old, as well as an algorithm and a guest subscriber, my first instinct was that this might not be fair to the child.
I was apprehensive about the idea of being beaten by an algorithm… and by the readers, if I’m honest. But a child? I was more concerned for him, particularly as he was propping up the table for the first 12 weeks of the season.
But 12 weeks later, young Wilfred is top of the table. First, he breezed past the subscribers, then he broke the algorithm and now he has well and truly knocked me off what I had been starting to imagine was my perch.
Each week since the season began in August, four of us — a guest subscriber, an algorithm, Wilfred and I — have been predicting the Premier League match scores. We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction.
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the record number of points in a week was 14, set by me in week 15 and since equalled by Bournemouth fan Chris in week 17, the algorithm in week 18 and Newcastle fan Hannah in week 22.
But Wilf has just smashed that, claiming 15 points (two correct scores, another six correct results and three bonus points) to force his way to the top of the table. He was spot-on with 1-1 draws in Brighton vs Everton and Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace, and he was one Dominic Solanke scorpion-kick away from another correct scoreline between Tottenham and Manchester City.
So who is this prodigious child with a gift for predicting football results? And what is his secret? Nearly six months into the season, it’s time to find out.
The Athletic: Wilfred, congratulations on reaching the top of the league and setting a new record of 15 points in a week. How does that make you feel?
Wilfred: I’m very surprised. I didn’t really expect to get a record or to be top of the league because I’m only six. No six-year-old would expect that.
The Athletic: I would love to know how you make your predictions. I think the rest of us could do with a few tips.
Wilfred: I normally decide because of where the teams are in the table. If it’s two good teams, like Liverpool vs Arsenal, I would judge that as a draw because they’re two good teams matched up, and normally they end in draws. I also think about their form.
The Athletic: Who is your favourite team? And does that affect your predictions?
Wilfred: I support Crystal Palace. I like watching them, but normally I say they are going to draw 1-1 as their games seem to finish 1-1 a lot. But they lose quite a lot, too…
The Athletic: Are there any teams you don’t like predicting?
Wilfred: The team I least like predicting are Newcastle. They’re a very weird team. Once, on Match of the Day, I saw a Newcastle fan naked in the stand watching the game. I thought, ‘What on earth are you doing? You’ve got no clothes on’. And the people next to him were wearing woolly jumpers, but it was the summer. So that makes them hard to predict. But mostly I just don’t like thinking about it.
Newcastle’s results, and their fans’ lack of clothing, have proved somewhat confusing for Wilfred (Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
Smart kid. Now do you see what I’m up against? Only four questions, but the answers are a lot more considered and a lot more detailed than I’m used to hearing as a football writer. Wilfred… Crystal Palace… it all makes sense now.
And I loved the answer about why Newcastle are unpredictable. I remember going to a Newcastle game at Shrewsbury Town when I was seven — it was 1982 for goodness’ sake, and Kevin Keegan was playing — and being similarly confused by seeing their fans with their tops off.
Anyway, I’m glad Wilfred has shared the secrets of his success, because I need to try to catch him.
This week’s guest subscriber is Peter, a 46-year-old Arsenal supporter from Dublin in Ireland. Good luck, Peter.
And good luck — not that he seems to need it — and a big thank you to Wilfred.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Liverpool vs Manchester City, Sunday, 4.30pm UK/11.30am ET
Peter says: Both teams need a win for different reasons. Neither are as consistent or machine-like as previous seasons. City don’t look like they can string the wins together to catch Arsenal at the minute. At home, Liverpool should fancy themselves, but this could end in a stalemate.
Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City
Oli says: Over the past 70 years, Manchester City have won at Anfield just three times: in 1981, 2003 and 2021. That’s three in 57 visits — and the only one in the past 23 years came when they were playing in an empty stadium during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Will Sunday be any different? Well, it could be, given Liverpool’s vulnerability this season. But if the magnificent City teams of recent years have been unable to win there, are they really likely to do so in their current uncertain state? I don’t think so. I haven’t backed Liverpool often in recent months, but this game might suit them, particularly with City having less recovery time after their Carabao Cup exploits in midweek.
Liverpool 2-1 Manchester City
Guardiola gestures to Liverpool fans at Anfield in December 2024 (Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty Images)
Oli’s other predictions
Leeds vs Nottingham Forest
One of these teams could pull nine points clear of the relegation zone — for now — by winning the opening match of the weekend on Friday night. The other could feasibly end up with West Ham moving to within three points by the end of play on Saturday. Alternatively, it could be a draw. And that’s my prediction on the basis that, if it’s level going into the closing stages, I’m not sure either team will gamble in pursuit of a winner.
Leeds 1-1 Nottingham Forest
Manchester United vs Tottenham
Manchester United scored just 44 goals in the Premier League last season. Only four of the other 19 teams got fewer. Forty-four in the 38 games. In fact, they haven’t scored more than 58 times in a Premier League campaign since 2020-21. But this season they’re already up to 44 in 24 matches, and only two teams (Manchester City and Arsenal) have scored more. Bruno Fernandes is thriving since interim head coach Michael Carrick restored him to a more advanced role and, frankly, it is hard to see Tottenham denying United a fourth consecutive win.
Manchester United 3-1 Tottenham
Fulham vs Everton
Since David Moyes returned to Everton for a second spell as manager in January last year, only five teams (Arsenal, City, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Chelsea) have picked up more points than them in the Premier League, which is really impressive when you consider how gloomy the outlook was at the time. They’ve also drawn more games than anyone else (14) over that time. Fulham don’t draw many, but this has 1-1 written all over it.
Fulham 1-1 Everton
Burnley vs West Ham
If West Ham are serious about wanting to avoid relegation — and it has begun to look like they might be starting to think about it — they need to win games like this one. Their home form isn’t good enough to be able to get away with just the occasional three points on the road. Burnley have tightened up a lot lately — five creditable draws in their past eight games — but, as with Wolves, it looks like too little too late for them, whereas West Ham have an opportunity to save themselves.
Burnley 1-2 West Ham
Arsenal vs Sunderland
I keep saying it, but Arsenal are the best team in the country. I really can’t see much reason to doubt they will be champions. As I wrote last week, I do feel they could do with playing with a little more freedom at times, optimising their talent rather than allowing so many games to become wars of attrition. But whether it’s handbrake on or handbrake off, they look good enough to win this title with plenty to spare. Sunderland will test them, but Arsenal should be too strong.
Arsenal 2-0 Sunderland
Wolves vs Chelsea
There was a lot of debate about Liam Rosenior’s tactical approach in Chelsea’s Carabao Cup semi-final second leg at Arsenal on Tuesday. I’m with Liam Twomey on this one; it was a sensible game plan that was well executed, even if it didn’t get the result they needed. The more significant factor, as Liam (Twomey) spelt out, is that Arsenal have been built to win the Premier League and Chelsea, frankly, have not. Overall, Rosenior has made a positive start since succeeding Enzo Maresca last month. He’s won his first three Premier League games, and should make it four out of four at Molineux.
Wolves 0-2 Chelsea
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Aston Villa’s 4-0 win over Bournemouth in November had two effects: 1) it made people sit up and take notice, and 2) it prompted discussion of whether their form was sustainable, given so many of their goals were coming from long distance rather than what might usually be termed “chances”. It feels instructive — maybe something of a levelling-out — that their recent dip has included three games (against Crystal Palace, Everton and Brentford) where they recorded a higher xG figure than their opponents but took just two points from nine. This game, against a Bournemouth team who are looking back in the swing of things, will be a really good test.
Bournemouth 1-2 Aston Villa
Newcastle vs Brentford
Newcastle have had two bruising away defeats on the bounce, 4-1 at Liverpool and then 3-1 at Manchester City in the Carabao Cup semi-final second leg, so they will be grateful to return to St James’ Park. But Brentford are uncompromising opponents and won’t make things easy for Eddie Howe’s team. This will also be Newcastle’s 11th game in 35 days. By early March, it will be 18 in 60. Understandably, they’re starting to feel the strain.
Newcastle 1-1 Brentford
Brighton vs Crystal Palace
After nine Premier League games without a win, the short trip down the M23 to Brighton is either just what Crystal Palace need or the last thing they need. I’ll be cheery for once — on Palace’s behalf — and suggest a game against their not-quite-local rivals might help to focus minds. I’ll go for a draw, but I wouldn’t rule out a very late winner either way.
Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace
