Welcome to week 18 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, which is brought to you in association with roast turkey, pigs in blankets, and far too much wine and chocolate.
If The Athletic were to subject us to a Pep Guardiola-style post-Christmas weigh-in tomorrow, then I would be relinquishing responsibility for this column until further notice.
But here we are. There’s only one Premier League game on Boxing Day, which has upset a few people, but it’s an appealing one — Manchester United vs Newcastle United at Old Trafford — and the rest of the programme takes place over the weekend.
Then there are another three rounds of matches to squeeze in between December 30 and the weekend of January 6/7, so it is fair to say we are not exactly going to be deprived of Premier League football.
For that reason, I’ll keep my preamble and my previews brief next week. For production reasons, I might find myself predicting before the previous round of fixtures has concluded, which sounds like a risky business.
Each week since the season began, four of us — a guest subscriber, the algorithm, six-year-old Wilfred and I — have been predicting the Premier League results.
We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so whereas Wilfred and I both got three points for tipping Aston Villa to beat Manchester United 2-1, our guest subscriber Christopher picked up not one but two four-point hauls for correctly predicting Arsenal’s 1-0 win at Everton and Brentford’s 2-0 win at Wolves.
You might remember Christopher, a Bournemouth fan from Kentucky, telling us last week he was desperate to “get the subscribers out of the basement”.
Well, I’m delighted to say he delivered on that promise, getting five correct results (including a bonus point for his Fulham v Nottingham Forest prediction) in addition to those two four-point hauls for his correct scorelines, earning a whopping 14 points to drag the readers off the bottom of the table.
And, magnificently, that means the algorithm, having looked unbeatable at one stage earlier in the season, is now bottom of the table.
This week’s guest subscriber is Adam, a 34-year-old Fulham supporter from Castro Valley, California. Over to you, Adam.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
West Ham vs Fulham, Saturday, 3pm UK/10am ET
Adam says: “With three key starters at AFCON (Bassey, Iwobi, and Chukwueze), where will Fulham’s attacking impetus and defensive solidity come from? West Ham need to break their six-game winless run to keep touch with 17th place. I’m having deja vu with West Ham’s late equaliser at Craven Cottage last season…”
West Ham 2-2 Fulham
Oli says: “After back-to-back victories in early November, it’s now six Premier League games without a win for West Ham, who are at serious risk of being cut adrift along with Burnley and Wolves. Four of their next six games are at home (against Fulham, Brighton, Nottingham Forest and Sunderland), and, with most teams, you would be thinking that is a good opportunity to get some wins on the board. But home advantage is no advantage for West Ham; they’ve won just seven out of 27 league games at London Stadium since the start of last season. Fulham might fancy their chances of piling on the misery.”
West Ham 1-2 Fulham
Manchester United vs Newcastle United
Newcastle seem to have Manchester United’s number. They have won five of their last six meetings and, after enjoying the rare luxury of a week on the training ground, they could well extend that sequence against a Manchester United team who a) are stretched by injuries and AFCON absences, and b) appear oddly complacent about having won two of their last eight Premier League games. Newcastle have an injury pile-up of their own, but they look better equipped to deal with it.
Manchester United 1-2 Newcastle
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
Sean Dyche led Everton to an unexpected draw at the Etihad Stadium on Boxing Day last year, but otherwise his record as a manager against Manchester City is, like most managers’ in recent times, pretty bleak: played 20, won one, drawn three, lost 16, goals scored 10, goals conceded 55. His only win came with Burnley in March 2015, when City were drifting in their second season under Manuel Pellegrini. They are not drifting now.
Nottingham Forest 1-2 Manchester City
Brentford vs Bournemouth
On Boxing Day 2011, Brentford played Bournemouth in a League One fixture at Griffin Park. If you had proposed to any of the 6,338 in attendance that day that Bournemouth would make it to the Premier League within four years and Brentford likewise six years later, you would have been laughed at. But what is arguably even more amazing than getting to the top flight is staying there: this is Brentford’s fifth consecutive Premier League campaign and Bournemouth’s ninth in the last 11. Despite losing key players in the summer, both continue to look entirely at home in the top flight. Purely for symmetry’s sake, I’ll go for the same scoreline as 11 years ago.
Brentford 1-1 Bournemouth
Liverpool vs Wolves
Liverpool are unbeaten in six games (four wins and two draws), but they are not convincing, and their attacking resources are severely stretched by injuries, Dominik Szoboszlai’s suspension, and Mohamed Salah’s AFCON duties. If they were faced with almost any other fixture on Saturday, I wouldn’t fancy them. But Wolves at home looks like a Christmas gift.
Liverpool 2-0 Wolves
Arsenal vs Brighton
If you’re going to win the Premier League, you’re going to have days where you don’t perform well and you just have to grind it out. Arsenal have had a number of them lately. They are not performing anything like as well as they were for the first three months of the campaign. Liverpool had a run of games like this in the second half of last season. It seems to have started earlier with Arsenal and, unlike Liverpool last season, they have a credible challenge from Manchester City to contend with. I think they’ll be fine against Brighton. Aston Villa next Tuesday will be more of a test.
Arsenal 2-0 Brighton
Burnley vs Everton
My predictions for Everton this season have been based on an assumption of strong results at home and struggles on their travels. But I’ve severely underestimated their away form — since David Moyes returned to the club last January, they’ve won eight Premier League games out of a possible 17. They’re without key players due to AFCON, but so are Burnley. Away win, perhaps with one or other of Everton’s former Burnley centre-backs (Michael Keane and James Tarkowski) the game’s outstanding player.
Burnley 0-1 Everton
Chelsea vs Aston Villa
Aston Villa have won their last 10 games in all competitions, 11 of their last 12 in the Premier League, and their title-challenging credentials are about to be tested with trips to Chelsea and Arsenal in the space of four days. Imagine if they were to win both. It’s not impossible, is it? I don’t think they will, but not for the first time in recent seasons, they are showing the type of consistency that seems beyond their next opponents. Is it silly to suggest another 2-2 draw for Chelsea after they shared four goals with Newcastle last Saturday? Possibly so, but there will be goals.
Chelsea 2-2 Aston Villa
Sunderland vs Leeds
When Daniel Farke was rewarded with an encouraging second-half performance after switching to a three-man central defence at Manchester City in November, he was asked whether he had found a way forward for his Leeds team. “If it’s just that easy — we play 3-5-2 and we just win and perform at a top level — then anyone could be a Premier League manager,” he said. But the change in formation has yielded a spectacular upturn for Leeds: as many points (eight) from their last four games as from their previous 12. Sunderland, who have been defying expectations all season, will present a very different kind of tactical challenge. It could be 1-0 either way.
Sunderland 1-0 Leeds
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham
I gave a lengthy explanation last week about why I haven’t felt able to back a Tottenham win since week six. I promise I will back them at some point (when do they play Wolves and Burnley again?), but at the moment, they just keep coming up against teams like Crystal Palace, who look equipped to beat them. With so many senior players missing through injury, and now Cristian Romero and Xavi Simons suspended, they just look fragile. Well, either fragile or stodgy, depending on which players are on the teamsheet. It’s a concern.
Crystal Palace 2-1 Tottenham
