Welcome to matchday 21 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, offering you a brief diversion from the madness of the managerial merry-go-round.
Chelsea parted company with Enzo Maresca on the first morning of the new year. Manchester United followed suit with Ruben Amorim four days later. Looking at the growing sense of strain at several other Premier League clubs, further upheaval could lie ahead.
There might be changes in our predictions table, too. I’ve been in first place since matchday 15, but find myself just two points clear of seven-year-old Wilfred following his latest stellar performance at the weekend.
Wilfred got two scorelines spot-on (Leeds United vs Manchester United and Tottenham vs Sunderland, both 1-1) and correctly predicted another four results. Only Harrison Reed’s spectacular 97th-minute equaliser for Fulham against Liverpool stood between Wilfred and another scoreline prediction that would have taken him to the top of the table.
Since the Premier League season began in August, four of us — Wilfred, a guest subscriber, an algorithm and I — have been predicting the results.
We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for a correct result.
There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so whereas three of us got three points for correctly predicting the 1-1 draw at Tottenham, Wilfred got four points as the only one to predict a 1-1 draw at Leeds. Clever boy.
Our guest subscriber, Liverpool fan Hans-Martin from Washington DC, also picked up a four-pointer as the only one to predict that Brighton would beat Burnley 2-0.
Despite Hans-Martin’s seven points, the readers remain bottom of the table, behind the miserable algorithm.
This week’s guest subscriber is Ian, a 30-year-old Everton fan from New York City. Good luck, Ian.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
West Ham vs Nottingham Forest, Tuesday, 8pm UK/3pm ET
Ian says: “I’d usually pick the Everton match or Arsenal vs Liverpool, but as an Everton fan, I know how crucial these relegation six-pointers are mid-season. Sean Dyche’s Nottingham Forest looked dire the other week against his former club, Everton. I’m giving West Ham and Nuno Espirito Santo the edge, 2-1, over his former employer.”
West Ham 2-1 Nottingham Forest
Oli says: “A freezing Tuesday night at London Stadium in January is a depressing thought at the best of times — let alone when both teams are playing poorly, haunted by the threat of relegation. It’s the kind of game that will either be defined by fear. Whether that fear leads to risk-free drudgery or to mistakes, that is the question. I suspect the former. And I suspect Forest are better equipped to take the three points that would plunge their former coach and his West Ham team deeper into the mire.”
West Ham 0-1 Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest manager Sean Dyche is up against Nuno Espirito Santo, who started the season in charge at the club (Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images)
Oli’s other predictions
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
It’s so encouraging for Aston Villa that, after Arsenal ended their winning run, they bounced back immediately by winning on Saturday. OK, it was only Nottingham Forest — and for those concerned by Villa’s reliance on long shots, there was the troubling sight of Ollie Watkins scoring from outside the penalty area and John McGinn scoring from somewhere near the old Perry Barr dog track — but it augured well. This won’t be easy, but Villa have enough goal threat and options from the bench to win again.
Crystal Palace 1-2 Aston Villa
Fulham vs Chelsea
I’ve only backed Chelsea to win two of their last eight games. But that is actually one more than they have won, such was their unravelling in the final weeks of Enzo Maresca’s tenure. Still, much of my rationale was based on a tough run of games for a young squad that at times looks ill-equipped for the week-to-week rigours of scrapping for points in the Premier League. Does that change dramatically with Liam Rosenior in charge? I’m not sure it does, but while there are some difficult fixtures ahead in other competitions, their Premier League schedule — Fulham, Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham, Wolves, Leeds, Burnley — offers the opportunity of a new-manager bounce.
Fulham 1-2 Chelsea
Brentford vs Sunderland
We’re past the halfway stage and Brentford and Sunderland are seventh and eighth in the Premier League table, tucked in neatly behind Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United. That is amazing. Wouldn’t it be fantastic if one of them — or even both — qualified for the Champions League? I don’t see it happening, but the way the bigger clubs are stumbling into mid-season crisis, you never know. At least one of Brentford and Sunderland will pick up another precious point on Wednesday. Thinking about it, maybe they both will.
Brentford 1-1 Sunderland
Bournemouth vs Tottenham
I was a little slow to jump onto the Bournemouth bandwagon at the start of the season and I was also a little slow to jump off it when their form took a nosedive. Nine Premier League games unbeaten have been followed by 11 without a win, but there were signs against Arsenal, as well as against Manchester United and Chelsea, to suggest they can beat a Tottenham Hotspur team who are just so dreary at the moment.
Bournemouth 2-1 Tottenham
Manchester City 3-1 Brighton
How much damage did Chelsea’s stoppage-time equaliser on Sunday do to Manchester City’s title hopes? It was only two points, but it was such a tired, sloppy second-half performance that it increased my doubts about this team’s ability to chase Arsenal down as they did in the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons. It is a stronger Arsenal, after all. And are City as strong as they were then? I’m not convinced, particularly in view of injuries to Josko Gvardiol and Ruben Dias. But they’re strong enough to stay in the race.
Manchester City 3-1 Brighton
Everton vs Wolves
Nothing against West Ham, but I was pleased Wolves finally won on Saturday. The people in charge of the club might deserve the opprobrium that has come their way, but for the most part there has been a fundamental honesty to their efforts on the pitch — initially under Vitor Pereira and now Rob Edwards — which isn’t usually the case when a team is getting such terrible results. Can they build on it? Probably not, given that David Moyes will demand Everton tighten up defensively after that horror show against Brentford.
Everton 1-0 Wolves
Burnley vs Manchester United
A familiar state of chaos hangs over Manchester United following the dismissal of Ruben Amorim and yet, despite everything, despite winning just 15 of his 47 Premier League games in charge, they are only three points off Liverpool in fourth. And their first game under Darren Fletcher, as interim coach, pits them against a Burnley side who have taken just two points from their last 11 games. Away win, followed by premature wave of “Why look any further?” talk, like it’s Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in early 2019 again.
Burnley 0-2 Manchester United
Newcastle vs Leeds
I said previously I would tip Newcastle United to win their first three games of 2026 while accepting the chances of them winning all three were slim. Well, they beat Burnley and they beat Crystal Palace, so despite my current enthusiasm for Leeds, I will stick with my initial plan and back Newcastle to make it three in a row.
Newcastle 2-0 Leeds
Arsenal vs Liverpool
Liverpool are unbeaten in nine games in all competitions, but their performances haven’t been convincing. There were some positive elements to their 2-2 draw at Fulham on Sunday, but overall, they look jaded — physically and mentally. In the circumstances, a trip to Arsenal seems like the last thing they need. When it comes to players who are fit and raring to go, Mikel Arteta is almost spoilt for choice, having rotated some of his squad successfully at Bournemouth, whereas the various weaknesses in Liverpool’s squad have been laid bare. I can see Arsenal winning comfortably.
Arsenal 3-0 Liverpool
