Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the midweek card of Premier League fixtures.
Chelsea vs Leeds, Tuesday 7.30pm
One of my favourite betting angles this season is centre-forwards committing fouls on centre-backs.
This season’s Premier League is a bruising product to watch. The data and the eye test are telling the same story in that the league has tilted back towards directness with far more emphasis on winning first contact. And when that happens, centre-forwards don’t just score goals, they start giving away fouls.
The result? Centre-backs are being fouled more often than the market expects.
Joao Pedro has come to life under Liam Rosenior, putting in some electric performances as the central striker where he’s also been making a healthy number of fouls. In six starts as the centre-forward under the new boss. he’s made eight fouls. Joe Rodon is in the firing line then when it comes to fouls drawn where he is a bulky 4/1 with Sky Bet to be fouled +2 times.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Everton vs Bournemouth, Tuesday 7.30pm
Everton midfielder James Garner looks a strong play to hit +2 fouls in this one at 11/4 with Sky Bet. Garner has hit this mark in 10 of his 20 starts in central midfield this season, showing he’s no stranger to getting his foot in at key moments.
Bournemouth’s Alex Scott, meanwhile, has been a magnet for fouls, drawing 14 in his last eight appearances. The battle between Garner and Scott in the middle of the park should see the Everton man commit a couple of challenges as he tries to disrupt Scott’s rhythm.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: James Garner +2 fouls committed (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Tottenham vs Newcastle, Tuesday 7.30pm
Just two wins in 16 Premier League games has left Tottenham a mere six points from safety and suddenly flirting with the drop.
Sky Bet aren’t messing about either. Spurs are now just 10/1 to go down.
If they don’t find form fast and West Ham keep winning, that relegation scrap could get very real indeed. This is getting serious.
Spurs are easily swerved here at 19/10 with Sky Bet too having won just one of their last 11 Premier League home matches.
Meanwhile, when the chips are down Eddie Howe usually delivers a result for Newcastle and he’ll be using the frustration within the home fanbase as a weapon in the hope the north London faithful turn on their team. That’s why a fast start is expected which makes the half-time/full-time market for Newcastle/Newcastle at 5/2 with Sky Bet a smart way to boost the odds on an away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
West Ham vs Manchester United, Tuesday 8.15pm
One of the standout bets on the midweek card is Crysensio Summerville to have a shot on target at Evens with Sky Bet. The winger has been a thorn in Premier League defences lately, registering nine shots on target in his last six matches.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s tactical system is clearly suiting Summerville, giving him the freedom to drift into dangerous positions and create big moments. Against a Manchester United side that has shown vulnerability out wide, expect Summerville to be buzzing for another attempt on goal.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Crysensio Summerville +1 shots on target (Evens with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Brighton, Wednesday 7.30pm
Brighton’s wobbles are a great betting edge to exploit. Just one win in 12 games isn’t a blip, that’s a crisis – yet the markets still have them priced as a dangerous outfit. Villa, notoriously ruthless and efficient at home, are on offer at 10/11 with Sky Bet for maximum points. That looks generous based on what Brighton are serving up.
Fabian Hurzeler’s side are struggling for creativity and confidence. The end could be near for him as Brighton boss.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Crystal Palace vs Burnley, Wednesday 7.30pm
Jorgen Strand Larsen played like a man with a big point to prove on his debut. It wasn’t always pretty or easy on the eye but he made his presence felt in that 1-0 win Brighton. Three fouls and a yellow card in his first appearance shows a striker visibly eager to impose himself and to make a statement.
Strand Larsen averages around 1.9 fouls per game in the Premier League. That’s potentially almost two yellow-card-worthy moments every 90 minutes. He carries the aura of a striker playing like it’s only a matter of time before he oversteps, mistimes a challenge or lashes out in frustration. Like he did at Brighton when stopping an attack with a cynical pull of the shirt.
Jorgen Strand Larsen is 19/2 to be carded with Sky Bet
Strand Larsen is a striker – sure – but a striker who’s touchy, combative, and clearly wants to make a mark. The odds are gigantic at 19/2 with Sky Bet for a card.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Jorgen Strand Larsen to be carded (19/2 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Fulham, Wednesday 7.30pm
This version of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City always gives you a chance. It’s a far cry from their controlled and possession-obsessed style.
Fulham, meanwhile, aren’t here to make up the numbers. Both teams to score have landed in 12 of their last 15 games and they’ve managed that feat on their last four visits to the Etihad. That’s not luck, that’s a proven blueprint of being able to hit City on the counter, capitalise on mistakes and play with freedom.
City will score – of course they will – but Fulham are likely to join the party. Both teams to score looks a bet at 4/5 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves, Wednesday 7.30pm
Morgan Gibbs-White and Wolves. Make no mistake, there’s bad blood there.
Every touch will be scrutinised, every run will be jeered and if he gets on the scoresheet, the emotions are going to explode.
Gibbs-White isn’t shy either. He’s combative, fiery and at 10/1 with Sky Bet to score and pick up a card, the value is screaming. Picture the scene: a Gibbs-White goal sparks celebrations in what has become a very big game now for Forest. The shirt may come off which triggers a booking.
Combine the two through the Sky Bet BuildABet function and 10/1 looks like a steal.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Sunderland vs Liverpool, Wednesday 8.15pm
If you want a betting market that rewards understanding football match-ups rather than predicting perfection, the “to be fouled” market is as good as it gets.
Bookmakers price fouls largely off averages and historical data. What they struggle to fully account for is role within a specific match-up. Like a foul-heavy centre-forward playing up against a wily centre-back. That’s what we have here.
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Gary Neville felt VAR ‘didn’t need to intervene’ during the dramatic ending of Liverpool’s defeat to Manchester City which saw Rayan Cherki’s goal disallowed and Dominik Szoboszlai awarded a red card.
This isn’t about Van Dijk losing control or his cool. That rarely happens.
It’s about Van Dijk being dragged into a very specific type of duel against his opponent in Brian Bobbey, who is not a subtle centre-forward. His game is built on confrontation.
Last season at Ajax he averaged 1.8 fouls per 90, which is a huge number for a striker operating in a possession-dominant side. Even more telling is the recent trend of nine fouls across his last six games where he is bullying big-name opponents. Van Dijk is 10/11 with Sky Bet to win +1 fouls.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Brentford vs Arsenal, Thursday 8.15pm
Arsenal are scoring goals at a relentless rate, conceding here and there and making life very, very hard for anyone trying to keep them quiet. That is a perfect cocktail for backing the over 2.5 goals line when the odds flirt around the Even money mark. Their last 13 games are averaging 3.4 goals per 90 minutes and 10 of those matches have gone over 2.5 goals
Even without Brentford contributing, Arsenal alone could easily cover this line. They’ve hit three or more goals in 10 of their last 13 matches. That’s ruthless attacking form from a team who know exactly how to punish mistakes.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet)
Follow the midweek matches live on the Sky Sports app and watch free match highlights shortly after full-time
