(Bloomberg) — While the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro following US airstrikes marks a seismic geopolitical development, early reports suggest that the global oil market will largely take the move in its stride.
Venezuela’s oil infrastructure wasn’t affected after a series of US attacks in Caracas and other states, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Key facilities such as Jose port, the Amuay refinery and oil areas in the Orinoco Belt are still operational, said the people, who declined to be named because the matter is confidential.
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While Venezuela was once an oil-producing powerhouse, its output has declined precipitously over the past two decades and now represents less than 1% of global supplies. Recent US pressure on Maduro’s regime, including the seizure of tankers carrying Venezuelan crude, forced the country to start shutting some oil wells.
Meanwhile, worldwide oil supplies are expected to exceed demand by 3.8 million barrels a day in 2026, which would mark a record, according to the International Energy Agency. Crude prices have slumped in recent weeks to around $60 a barrel.
One weekend retail trading product run by IG Group showed US crude prices at one point rising by close to $2 from Friday’s close.
“I assess that Brent crude prices will rise only marginally at the open on Sunday evening, by 1-2 US dollars or even less,” said Arne Lohman Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. “Even under normal conditions, a disruption of this magnitude is manageable for the market. In particular, all forecasts point to a significant oversupply in the first quarter, driven by seasonally weak demand and OPEC+ production increases.”
Venezuela is a member of OPEC, which along with allies including Russia is scheduled to meet Sunday. Their planned video conference is expected to see the group stick with a planned pause to production hikes, three delegates said earlier this week.
The tanker seizures in the Caribbean in recent weeks have spooked operators of sanctioned vessels. At least seven ships have reversed course or halted at sea, according to ship movements tracked Friday by Bloomberg. That adds to four others that turned away in the immediate aftermath of US forces boarding the vessel Skipper in mid-December.
Despite the volatility of the past month, US oil producer Chevron Corp. has continued to operate in the country under a sanctions waiver issued by the Trump administration.
