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Bitcoin may be set to replicate a tumultuous time in its history, according to veteran commodities trader Peter Brandt.
“November 2021 all over again?” Brandt said last weekend on X, sharing Bitcoin’s weekly-candle chart.
Much like today, in November 2021 Bitcoin had just surged to new all-time highs. For many cryptocurrency market participants, it felt like the asset was unstoppable. Just as many are predicting a $1 million price for Bitcoin today, many at the time were betting on the asset continuing its run to $100,000.
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But what followed was far from what many anticipated. Instead of a straight run to $100,000, Bitcoin kicked off a massive correction culminating in a nearly 80% drop from its 2021 high of $69,000 to trade at about $15,600 almost a year later.
Brandt’s weekly-candle chart highlights that Bitcoin could be forming the same bearish double-top chart pattern it did in 2021. A repeat of the same price action could see the asset tank as low as the $25,000 price point from its high of $112,000.
Could this time be different?
Responding to Brandt, Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said unlike 2021, the Federal Reserve “is more likely to start cutting rates than raising rates.” This remark comes as many view rapid interest rate hikes from the Fed starting in Q1 2022 as one of the major catalysts for the ensuing cryptocurrency bear market. The central bank had embarked on this course of action to fight inflation.
Unlike in 2021, inflation presently appears to be steadily inching closer to the Fed’s 2% target, making interest rate cuts more likely. It also helps that lower interest rates align with President Donald Trump‘s policy agenda.
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Pandl is not alone in thinking this time could be different for Bitcoin. Crypto analyst “AetherX Capital” said the asset’s fundamentals are significantly better.
“Bitcoin’s fundamentals have never been better,” they said. “From a technical perspective, there’s no reason to worry yet.”
Fellow prominent crypto trader “IncomeSharks” was even more optimistic. They said it would likely be 2021 all over again for Bitcoin. While the tail end of 2021 proved to be underwhelming, the asset had surged as much as 138% within the year.
