The most likely scenario in polling analyst Nate Silver‘s presidential model is that Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, wins all seven swing states in November’s election.
Silver—a leading polling analyst and founder of polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, which he is no longer affiliated with—has come out with his own presidential model for the 2024 election and wrote in his Substack blog on Sunday that the model’s most frequent combination involving the seven swings states is a sweep for Harris.
Since the president is decided via the Electoral College system, either Harris or Trump will have to get at least 270 votes, which are spread out by state according to the number of representatives and senators it has, to win the White House.
The path to victory in the Electoral College system is through swing states, which are states where the electorate is more mixed in terms of which political party they voted for in the past. The seven swing states are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.
Harris won all seven swing states 15,273 times out of 70,000 simulations of Silver’s model run on Sunday. The next most likely scenario is that Trump wins all seven swing states. The former president won all the swing states 13,912 out of the 70,000 simulations.
Silver said there is roughly a 40 percent chance that either Harris or Trump will take all of the swing states amid this year’s election.
When reached for comment by Newsweek on Sunday afternoon, Trump’s communications director, Steven Cheung, sent a link to Polymarket’s election forecast which has Trump winning the Electoral College 290 to 248, with him taking Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. In this scenario, Harris just gets North Carolina and Nevada.
Newsweek also reached out to Harris’ campaign via email for comment on Sunday evening.
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How Are the Candidates Doing in Each Swing State?
Harris currently leads Trump in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to Silver’s presidential model. In Michigan, Harris has 48.7 percent of support and the former president has 46.8 percent. In Nevada, Harris has 48.9 percent compared to Trump’s 47.1 percent. In Pennsylvania, the vice president has 48.8 percent to Trump’s 47.5 percent. And in Wisconsin, Harris has 49.4 percent to Trump’s 47.5 percent.
Meanwhile, Trump is ahead of Harris in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. In Arizona, the former president has 48.6 percent of support compared to Harris’ 47.3 percent. In Georgia, Trump has 48.6 percent while Harris has 47.9 percent. And in North Carolina, Trump has 48.1 percent to the vice president’s 47.9 percent.
While the numbers slightly change in FiveThirtyEight’s current polling averages, both candidates still lead in the same swing states, except for North Carolina where Harris has a 0.1-point lead over Trump (47.6 to 47.5 percent).
In Michigan, Harris has 48.1 percent of support to Trump’s 46.2 percent. In Nevada, the vice president has 48 percent compared to Trump who has 46.5 percent. In Pennsylvania, Harris has 48.1 percent and the former president has 47.1 percent. And in Wisconsin, Harris has 48.6 percent while Trump has 46.7 percent.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, Trump has 47.9 percent of support compared to Harris’ 46.9 percent and in Georgia, the former president has 48.1 to Harris’ 47.5 percent.
How Are the Candidates Doing Nationally?
National polls better show what the popular vote will be, which does not ensure an election victory. However, it does gauge how Americans are feeling about each candidate.
Silver’s presidential model has Harris 3.3 points ahead of Trump on the national stage (49.3 to 46 percent). The vice president is also leading Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average by 2.8 points (48.5 to 45.7 percent).
Update 9/29/24, 6:29 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with a response from Cheung.
