LEEDS UNITED VS. LIVERPOOL
| Saturday, December 6th |
Premier League | Elland Road
5:30PM BST/12:30PM EST
Leeds come into this one without Daniel James and Sean Longstaff, and two of their forwards, Lukas Nmecha and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, are doubts and will face late fitness tests. Should Calvert-Lewin be fit, he will seek to score in three consecutive games for the first time since 2021.
Daniel Farke’s side comes into this one in 17th place on the table, having managed four wins, two draws, and eight losses this season. Despite their struggles, they have posed a challenge to teams of late, beating Chelsea last time out and losing narrowly in stoppage time to Manchester City (3-2, away) last weekend. Liverpool will be more accustomed to the dense schedule than Leeds are, and playing three games in seven days is a big ask.
Perhaps most important for this mentally fragile Liverpool side: Leeds came back at Manchester City to make it 2-2 from 2-0 down before losing late. Much like Sunderland, they have the mentality to keep going even if the game seems to be going against them.
Leeds last beat Liverpool in 2022 in a shock result at Anfield (as this was back when Liverpool didn’t lose at home), and the Reds are unbeaten in six at Elland Road (W4 D2) — even if recent form has been much more up in the air. In the recent past, though, Liverpool have found Leeds to be great opponents, scoring six in each of the last two meetings: and goodness if the Reds couldn’t use a repeat of that for their confidence levels.
Though they come into this match riding high on their win against Chelsea, Leeds did lose four in a row prior to the result, and haven’t won consecutive games since 2022 (ironically one of those wins was the aforementioned win at Anfield).
Predicted Liverpool Lineup (4-3-3)
Alisson; Bradley, Konaté, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Wirtz, Gravenberch, Szoboszlai; Salah, Isak, Gakpo
Despite Liverpool’s recent struggles, Arne Slot has real challenges when it comes to team selection, as whichever starting XI he selects good players will miss out. Ryan Gravenberch is essential in the midfield, but with Conor Bradley returning to the squad the likes of Dominik Szoboszlai, Alexis Mac Allister, and Florian Wirtz are battling it out to pair with the Dutchman in midfield. Wirtz can play as a member of the front three, and could be deployed instead of one of Cody Gakpo, Hugo Ekitiké, Alexander Isak, or Mohamed Salah.
Despite the doom and gloom, I can’t help but still feel like Liverpool have looked pretty good pretty often. Individual mistakes and poor performances (in single moves and in games more broadly) have sunk the Reds, as has a lack of clinical finishing. Per Opta, “no team has had more different players create 20+ chances than Liverpool in the Premier League this season (4, level with Chelsea) – Mohamed Salah (28), Cody Gakpo (25), Dominik Szoboszlai (24) and Florian Wirtz (20).” This means that Liverpool are certainly creating the chances even if the finishing leaves something to be desired (and it’s worth noting where Salah sits on that list).
Indeed, the statistics all go against the outcomes, with Liverpool consistently underperforming their xG and seeing opponents over-score their own number when they face the Reds. This doesn’t give Liverpool three points, but it does support my general feeling that the results have been a lot worse than the matches actually look on the eye — though there’s no statistical way to analyze those moments when something goes wrong and the Reds seem to just give up. The lack of scoring is worrying: per FotMob, Liverpool have accrued an xG of 26 but only scored 17 in this last run of 14 matches. (It is worth noting that Liverpool did take a lot of low-value shots against Sunderland, and probably didn’t do enough to score a second goal — which of course became harder after Sunderland got their goal and shifted to a slightly more defensive approach.)
The Reds have defensive issues at present, and those should be addressed, but it would be a lot easier to do so should the elite attacking players Slot has to work with slightly improve their finishing to give the Reds more of a cushion. Could a high-scoring game do something to stop the malaise? Regardless, this run of fixtures is beginning to feel unrelenting as a spectator, and must be all the more so for the players. Yet again we must hope that they turn it around: and a week with two wins and a draw would be a decent start in doing so.
The Managers Have Their Say
Arne Slot: “Yesterday I looked at Leeds v Chelsea and I thought I saw a Liverpool game; Chelsea conceding a set-piece and for the third goal making a big, big error where they conceded a goal from. [It was] very difficult for them. Either Leeds went very aggressive to one-v-one or they went to a low block and it was really hard to create chances. It’s not only difficult for us, that playing style, it’s difficult for many teams – including us. So what we expect is what we’ve seen in the second half against [Manchester] City when they were 2-0 down, coming back to 2-2. Eventually [Phil] Foden made the difference with a moment of magic for City and against City they were really strong and played a very good game. They were really aggressive and had a lot of long balls as well from their goalkeeper. We know what to expect but what to expect is probably what we’ve faced [in] all of the games with maybe the exception of two.”
Daniel Farke: “I have no doubt that we have to be, like in the last two games against also top-class sides, Man City, Chelsea, back at our very, very best. And also we need Elland Road at full voice and also at their very, very best to give ourselves a chance to make a tight game out of this and then also, hopefully to get a good result out of it. So, yeah, a tough week for us, but we’re also in a good mood and we’ll be prepared.”
Referee: Anthony Taylor Assistants: Gary Beswick, Adam Nunn Fourth official: Leigh Doughty VAR: John Brooks Assistant VAR: Dan Robathan
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