The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasted a sharp rebound for Indonesian coffee in its semi-annual outlook, projecting 2025/26 production at 12.5 million 60-kg bags, an 18 percent increase year-on-year. The gain is driven largely by robusta recovery, which is expected to account for about 11 million bags of output, reshaping supply flows for buyers and exporters.
Exports of green coffee are projected at 7.8 million bags, up 27 percent from 2024/25, with shipments to Europe and other markets playing a significant role. The report cites a weaker rupiah as a tailwind for competitiveness on the global market, helping Indonesian exporters price beans more attractively. The United States’ share of imports had dipped amid prior tariff measures on Indonesian coffee, though recent tariff waivers could support a recovery in U.S. demand and help restore relationships with North American buyers.
Regional gains are concentrated in lowland robusta zones of southern Sumatra, where favorable weather and rebuilding of tree and nursery stock boosted volumes. For origin buyers, the shift means more availability of lowland robusta lots that traders and roasters use for blends, instant coffee, and bulk contracts. That matters for small roasters and contracting teams who have faced tight supply and sporadic price spikes in recent seasons.
The forecast sits inside a broader global backdrop that points to record world production estimates for 2025/26. Indonesia’s improvement, together with positive outlooks from Ethiopia, contrasts with down crops in big exporting origins such as Brazil and Colombia, which keeps the market dynamic and location-specific. Domestic consumption and ending-stocks trajectories in Indonesia were also noted as part of the supply picture, signaling that increased output does not simply translate to exportable surplus; internal demand will absorb some of the gain.
For traders, roasters, and origin buyers, the near-term practical impact is clearer access to robusta grades and potential leverage in negotiations. Importers should watch container freight flows and currency moves as they can influence landed costs even when green coffee availability improves. For roasters focused on blends or cost management, increased robusta volumes could ease pressure on margins.
Our two cents? If you’re buying green coffee, start engaging with origin suppliers now—request samples, lock in quality specs, and consider staggered contracts to take advantage of improved availability while guarding against price whipsaws.
