Real Madrid’s impressive round-of-16 elimination of Manchester City was not without incident following the news that Thibaut Courtois suffered a right quadriceps injury during the first half of the return leg at the Etihad. The injury will result in what is arguably Europe’s finest goalkeeper missing 6 weeks of action, including the highly anticipated Champions League quarterfinal matchup against Bayern Munich. The unavailability of Madrid’s veteran keeper for the quarterfinal tie is no minor loss particularly given his big match experience.
Courtois’ legacy at Real Madrid is already well cemented. The Belgian has played in 99 Champions League matches, 71 of which have come while wearing the Real Madrid jersey. Courtois will have to wait to become the 56th player and only eighth goalkeeper to reach the century mark in matches in Europe’s most prestigious club competition, joining Iker Casillas (177), Manuel Neuer (157), Gianluigi Buffon (124), Petr Čech (111), Víctor Valdés (106), Jan Oblak (104) and Oliver Kahn (103). Courtois and Neuer are looking to make history this spring by attempting to join Keylor Navas as the only keepers to start in four Champions League finals, with both the Belgian and German having won two of their previous three finals. A third ‘orejona’ for either would also see them join Casillas (Real Madrid), Valdés (Barcelona), Navas (Real Madrid), Juan Alonso (Real Madrid), Heinz Stuy (Ajax), Sepp Maier (Bayern Munich) and Ray Clemence (Liverpool) in the select group of keepers have lifted the Champions League trophy on three occasions.
Courtois’s performances in the Champions Leage are legendary. The Belgian has a 75% save percentage in 71 Champions League matches with Madrid, stopping 275 of the 367 shots that have found their way between the three posts. In knockout round matches, that percentage is only slightly lower at 73.8% (138 saves of 187 shots on target faced), nearly identical to the as the 74% save percentage (57 of 77) of Keylor Navas in 21 elimination round/final matches with Madrid. That includes two clean sheets and 13 saves from 13 shots on target faced in two Champions League finals, a spectacular zero goals allowed by the Belgian great from 4.27 expected goals against in those two finals. Keep in mind that Courtois has been facing an average of 5.3 shots per 90 minutes in his 34 Champions League matches with Madrid after the group phase/initial round, significantly higher than the 3.6 shots per 90 faced by Navas in similar matches during Madrid’s three-peat.
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In fact, Courtois’s nine saves in the 2022 final vs. Liverpool, arguably the greatest performance by a keeper in a European club final, are more than Navas made in total (eight) in his four finals. Since, and including the 2022 final, Courtois has faced 97 shots in knockout round matches with an expected goal total of 24.84 and allowed just 19 goals. No keeper in the Champions has outperformed their xGA in Champions League knockout matches over that time more so than the Belgian.
Clearly replacing Courtois is impossible, but Madrid fans will be comforted knowing that Andriy Lunin has been a reliable shot stopper when asked to fill Courtois’s big shoes as he demonstrated in the second half at the Etihad. In 14 Champions League matches with Madrid, half of which have been in elimination rounds, the Ukranian has a 74% save percentage (54 saves of 73 shots on target), with that percentage, albeit in a small sample size, increasing to an outstanding 81% (33 of 41) in knockout round matches. Perhaps most impressively, of the nine big chances opponents have had in elimination rounds when facing Lunin, only two (22.2%) have ended up finding the back of the net. That compares favorably to the 37.2% of big chances (29 of 78) Real Madrid opponents have managed to score against Courtois in 34 knockout round matches or the 37.9% (11 of 29) opponents scored against Navas in his last 18 elimination round matches minding the Madrid net.
