The Carabao Cup semi-finals being decided this week confirmed the first blank and double gameweeks of the season.
Arsenal’s win against Chelsea means they and Wolves will double in Gameweek 26 and blank in Gameweek 31. Manchester City’s defeat of holders Newcastle United in the other tie means they will very likely blank in Gameweek 31.
And it’s Arsenal’s double, where they travel to Brentford and then Wolves, which is where we should be looking to invest in.
Saka out. So what’s the sensible move?
Bukayo Saka (£9.9m) currently being injured changes the shape of our Arsenal investment, but it doesn’t reduce the appeal of loading up on their assets.
With a strong single fixture in Gameweek 25 at home to Sunderland acting as the perfect entry point, many FPL managers will be looking to buy now and go into the double with three Arsenal players locked in.
As Saka is out, selling him is unavoidable. For managers short on transfers or keen to minimise disruption elsewhere, a move to Declan Rice (£7.5m) looks a fairly straightforward transfer. Rice offers secure 90-minute starts, set pieces, and he can hit in terms of defensive contributions, too. He’s been getting forward more consistently this season — proven by his four goals and seven assists in the Premier League. I can see him doing the full 90 minutes in the next three games (Sunderland, Brentford, Wolves), so he’s exactly the type of player you want in a double gameweek.
Crucially, Rice also frees up funds and allows managers to maintain triple Arsenal coverage without restructuring their squad and upgrading elsewhere. I don’t think any other Arsenal attacker is worth going for, due to them being rotation risks or poor FPL options.
Noni Madueke (£6.8m) should see some increased game time while Saka is absent, but he was subbed off after 69 minutes for Kai Havertz (£7.3m) in that Carabao Cup semi-final decider on Tuesday, so he’s still not nailed to start or guaranteed a lot of minutes. Also, he will be an immediate sell as soon as Saka is fit.
The case for tripling on the Arsenal defence
Another popular strategy emerging is restructuring into a triple Arsenal defence.
This actually works well as you can sell Saka to switch to a midfielder such as Bryan Mbeumo (£8.5m), Florian Wirtz (£8.3m), Enzo Fernandez (£6.8m) or Morgan Rogers (£7.6m), and then reinvest the savings at the back. They are all great options with decent fixtures and arguably more upside than Rice, but it is probably only worth it for those FPL managers with multiple free transfers at their disposal.
Arsenal remain the most solid defensive side in the league — and it’s not even close. I don’t think a triple-up on their defence is a bad idea at all. They have conceded the fewest goals (17, six fewer than anyone else) and have the best xGC (expected-goals conceded — 16.42) among the 20 clubs. For context, Liverpool have the second-best xGC at 26.87.
A defensive triple-up may not sound glamorous, but with Arsenal’s run of fixtures and a double gameweek coming, it could be devastatingly effective.
Best defensive options?
Needless to say, Gabriel (£7.0m) remains the standout Arsenal defender. He combines nailed minutes with significant goal threat from set pieces, making him the game’s most explosive option at the back. In a double gameweek, even one attacking return from him alongside a clean sheet could lead to a massive haul.
William Saliba (£6.0m) and Jurrien Timber (£6.3m) are both fine options in their own right. Timber has the greater attacking threat, but Saliba is more secure for minutes and starts and is that little bit cheaper. I really don’t see much between them, but Timber is the upside pick and Saliba the safe option.
With 115 points, Jurrien Timber is the third-highest-scoring defender in FPL (Ben Stansall / AFP via Getty Images)
It’s also worth noting Arsenal’s first match of double gameweek 26 at Brentford is on Thursday, February 12, and then they don’t go to Wolves until six days later — Wednesday, February 18. They have an FA Cup tie at home against third-division Wigan in between, where I imagine a lot of the first-team players will be benched, rested or see reduced minutes. So I think we see a full-strength team from Mikel Arteta in both double-gameweek fixtures.
Goalkeeper David Raya (£5.9m) deserves serious consideration, and if you are going with a triple Arsenal defence, I think the best strategy is to go with him and two defenders.
Blank Gameweek 31 implications
With City also reaching the Carabao Cup final on March 22, they and Crystal Palace will very likely blank in Gameweek 31. City will not have a double in Gameweek 26, however.
This means that you have to be quite careful now in what transfers you make. A lot of us will have three Arsenal players, maybe one or two from Palace and at least one City asset, so buying too many options from the teams who are blanking will leave you short when Gameweek 31 comes around.
Antoine Semenyo (£7.8m) will be a player many FPL managers look at, but with alternatives such as Wirtz and Mbeumo, you might want to go there instead to play it safe. It’s unlikely any of us will be selling Gabriel or Erling Haaland (£15.0m), so that’s two players who will be on our benches already.
If you become loaded up on players from City and Palace, you should plan to start selling them ahead of Blank Gameweek 31. Gameweek 31 might seem a long time away as we await gameweek 25, but with limited free transfers, it’s best to start planning, as it is inevitable that other issues will crop up.
Gameweek 32 looks like the right time to use the Wildcard to set yourself up for the doubles and blanks that tend to occur at the end-of-season run-in, and the Free Hit feels as if it will be much more beneficial for Blank Gameweek 34 as more teams are likely to sit that round out.
Planning now will mean you can save your chips for the more optimal times to play them.
