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Hims Shares Notch Record Week as Novo Pact Spurs Optimism

Bloomberg

Hims & Hers Health Inc. shares posted their best week on record as a new partnership with Novo Nordisk A/S fuels fresh optimism about the company’s future in weight-loss drugs.

The San Francisco-based company’s stock climbed about 57% this week, rallying in four of the past five trading sessions.

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Earlier this week, the telehealth company said it would work with Novo to sell blockbusters Ozempic and Wegovy on its platform, ending a feud between the firms. Novo also agreed to drop a lawsuit it filed against Hims last month. In return, Hims will no longer advertise compounded versions of Novo’s drugs, but it will still sell copies of Ozempic and Wegovy if a doctor says a patient needs them.

“This deal alleviated near term concerns while almost putting Hims back on the right path for long-term growth with a branded partner,” Needham & Co analyst Ryan MacDonald said in an interview.

Investors are betting that the pact with Novo will likely drive growth and chart a path forward for the telehealth company that had been embroiled in legal and regulatory setbacks. And that this time, the agreement will stick.

Novo ended its initial partnership with Hims in June, accusing it of using “deceptive marketing.” At the time, Novo executives said Hims wasn’t stepping back enough from its practice of mass marketing compounded versions of the weight-loss drugs. Investors dumped Hims’ stock as questions grew about the firm’s weight-loss business as well as the risk of lawsuits from the Danish company.

The selloff worsened early this year when Novo sued Hims for launching a copycat version of the Wegovy pill, even after Hims swiftly pulled it from the market following regulatory threats. Hims also gave a weaker-than-expected profit outlook for the first quarter. That led to a 46% plunge in February, a record monthly drop. The stock was down 52% year-to-date, erasing $3.8 billion in market value, before the partnership was announced on Monday.

“With Novo coming back to the table and Hims sort of changing its policy on compounding, there is a more optimistic long-term future for Hims’ business,” said MacDonald, who raised his recommendation on the stock to buy from hold.

Transition Period

At least four analysts have upgraded their ratings on the stock this week. Yet Wall Street remains overwhelmingly cautious, with only five out of 17 analysts tracked by Bloomberg recommending investors buy the stock. About 11 others recommend holding.

Citigroup research analyst Daniel Grosslight sees the new partnership leading to “a large decline” in revenue and adjusted Ebitda as it will require Hims to stop mass marketing of personalized copies of the obesity drugs – products made to suit an individual’s need by tweaking dosages or adding ingredients. Still, it removes some risk from Hims, “and as such we turn more constructive,” Grosslight wrote in a note after upgrading the stock to neutral from sell.

For its part, Hims said it is making “a strategic shift” in how it sells obesity drugs, after facing legal and regulatory pressures regarding its compounding business. This week, the company hired Kathryn Beiser, who led communications at Eli Lilly & Co. for five years, as its chief communications officer.

Needham’s MacDonald sees a “transitionary period” for Hims as the company moves to start selling branded medicines and away from mass marketing of personalized compounded GLP-1s.

“If an existing personalized GLP-1 subscriber on Hims were to transition to the branded, we don’t know what the revenue or margin impact will be yet because the company hasn’t shared what the full unit economic breakdown of the relationship will be,” MacDonald said. “That’s the biggest variable here.”

(Updates with closing prices throughout)

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