Today, we will take a look at Forex Trading on NZDCAD, the NASDAQ, the DAX40, WTI and Brent Crude Oil, Silver XAGUSD, and Gold XAUUSD.
The Iran War ceasefire caused a big jump in the price of precious metals.
We saw a pullback, but price action is still moving higher.
The most obvious reason is the weaker USD.
There is still safe haven buying of gold as the situation in the Middle East is fragile, and most investors don’t trust the ceasefire.
Up until the last week in March, gold and silver had been falling, but the bullish price action had investors short-covering, moving funds back into long positions.
Gold always goes higher with uncertainty, and right now, we have a major oil supply risk, geopolitical risk, inflation risk and central bank uncertainty.
Bond yields have been falling, which always drives up the price of gold.
Price action on both is at the lower trendline, but be aware that Iran war ceasefire talks should be held this weekend.
The Iran War ceasefire talks being held this weekend will determine the direction of Brent crude and WTI Crude Oil.
The Strait of Hormuz is still a supply problem, and even though prices fell on the news of the ceasefire, they may go back up if there is no clear resolution.
Price action on Brent fell with a gap, but the fundamentals are so wild right now, we won’t consider this a gap trade…yet.
And, curiously, WTI and Brent are still at the same price, which tells us that there is more demand for WTI.
If the Strait of Hormuz opens soon, the price of WTI will fall faster than Brent.
WTI is at a lower trend line, and the stochastic oscillator is oversold, but we need to see what happens over the weekend in Pakistan.
We have been following various indices looking for the death cross.
We still have them on the NASDAQ and the DAX, but both have actually climbed back above the 200-day SMA.
It seems that equity investors are confident that the ceasefire will hold, and they haven’t sold the shares they bought this month.
Let’s see what happens after this weekend.
USD is weaker, and price fell with a huge gap to the downside.
We see price action forming a double bottom, and the stochastic oscillator but the fundamentals will drive price for a while.
Yesterday’s low GDP number also drove USD lower.
Today’s CPI figures will give the Fed a big clue about inflation and future interest rate decisions.
Also, today, we have Canadian employment data.
I encourage you to check CAD pairs as we have seen CAD weakness except against the weak USD and this big spike of NZD that we spotted last time.
On NZDCAD, we see a range trading opportunity and price action back at this key level, in what could be the formation of a reversal pattern.
Let’s keep an eye on this and everything that will happen this weekend.
That’s all for now.
CFDs and FX are leveraged products, and your capital may be at risk.
