EUR/GBP stayed in range trading above 0.8610 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained break above 55 D EMA (now at 0.8680) will confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 0.8788 resistance. However, rejection by 55 D EMA will set up another fall through 0.8611 to 100% projection of 0.8863 to 0.8611 from 0.8788 at 0.8536.
In the bigger picture, current development revived the case that whole rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) has completed at 0.8863, after rejection by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 (2022 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618 will confirm this case, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least. For now, medium term outlook is neutral at best as long as 0.8863 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.
