Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in just one swing state, according to the final Sienna College/New York Times poll before the election.
The poll, released on Sunday, shows Harris leading in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump leads in Arizona.
It surveyed 7,878 likely voters across the seven states between October 24 and November 2, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 points within each state.
Sienna College/New York Times is one of America’s most trusted pollsters. Polling analyst FiveThirtyEight ranks it first on its list of 282 pollsters for its historical track record and transparency. Polling analyst Nate Silver ranks it in the top two polling firms, giving it an A+ grade.
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Since the last round of NYT/Sienna polling in the battleground states, momentum has moved towards Harris in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, three states where Trump previously led her but where she is now ahead.
In Pennsylvania, polls have tightened in Trump’s favor. The previous NYT/Sienna poll, conducted between October 7 and October 10, had Harris leading by four points in the Keystone state – it now has them tied.
In Michigan, the results are unchanged: the candidates were tied in the previous survey conducted between September 21 and 26, and they remain tied now.
In Wisconsin, Harris has maintained her lead, and in Arizona, Trump has maintained his lead.
As well as the presidential race, the poll also showed a tightening race for some Senate seats.
The latest poll found Pennsylvania Democrat Bob Casey leads by five points, down from nine in September.
In Wisconsin, Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin leads by four percentage points, down from eight in September.
In Arizona and Nevada, Democrats have larger leads, with Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake by five points, and Nevada’s incumbent Senator Jackie Rosen holding a comfortable nine-point lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown.
Despite the overall strong results from Democratic Senate candidates in the swing states, those states alone will not be enough for the party to hold its Senate majority, due to conservative former Democrat Senator Joe Manchin almost certain to be replaced by Republican Jim Justice in West Virginia, and Democrat incumbent Jon Tester looking unlikely to defend his Montana seat from Republican challenger Tim Sheehy.
This is a breaking news story and will be updated.
