After Tuesday’s strong win over Dortmund, Tottenham Hotspur shot up to fifth in the Champions League table and suddenly is favored to get a bye into the Round of 16. At the same time, Spurs are just 10 points ahead of the relegation zone in the Premier League, still winning only once in the league since early December. While relegation is probably not a real threat (right?!), improvements are needed immediately.
One might think a trip to Burnley would be the perfect cure, but last weekend’s loss to West Ham moves Tottenham’s record against the bottom four down to 2-1-2. Furthermore, the Clarets have taken points off United and Liverpool in their last two matches, meaning Spurs will not intimidate them at all. Still, they have not won in the league since October; Thomas Frank gets no passes for this one.
Date: Saturday, January 24
Time: 10:00 am ET, 3:00 pm UK
Location: Turf Moor, Burnley
TV: USA Network (US)
Table: Burnley (19th, 14 pts), Spurs (t-14th, 27 pts)
The Opening Day win over Burnley was one of Tottenham’s best this season. Two athletic goals by Richarlison and a third from Brennan Johnson had supporters dreaming of a brand new era under Frank — instead, the next five months felt no different than the last year. At least this one contest played out exactly how one might expect between clubs with this gap in quality, which maybe gives a little hope for the weekend.
The last two matches, Burnley has lost the xG battle by a combined 5.73-0.64, but the scorelines read 3-3. Scott Parker’s side was fortunate in each contest to come away with a draw, but the pattern is there to again make it work against superior (heh, maybe) opposition. In fact, four of the last six matches have ended with points, and while some of these will need to turn into wins to escape relegation, there is clear improvement.
The Clarets know they need to maximize their opportunities. They are dead last in the league in possession and have owned less than 40 percent of the ball the last two weeks. However, the side is closer to average in shot-on-target percentage, goals per shot, and goals per shot on target, so when there is a chance, it is not like this team is completely unable to find the back of the net.
What does that mean for Tottenham? Mistakes would be deadly. The debacle last weekend was just the latest example of being punished for defensive lapses, and let the last two Burnley contests show that this side needs no extra invitation. Even with no wins in the last two road trips, I do think going to Turf Moor is still probably a more profitable setting than this being at home, but we shall see.
Frank potentially bought himself another month in North London after dispatching Dortmund, eerily following in the footsteps of his predecessor. It is now well established the Ange Postecoglou pushed all the chips in the Europa League and punted the Premier League, and even though that was both the right decision and a successful mission, it still did not save his job.
The calculus is trickier for Frank as winning the Champions League is not really an option (probably?), so he still needs to provide some attention to the league. But is finishing eighth and exiting early from the knockout rounds actually going to help him in the long run, or is it just going to delay the inevitable? Maybe the only way out is just keep — but really, start — winning.
Some might argue this match is bigger than Wednesday’s trip to Frankfurt. That is not a statement I would agree with, but even with a top-eight finish in the League Phase, Frank’s dismissal would be justified given his terrible domestic performance, so this trip to Burnley does feel critical. Anyone who has followed this club for any amount of time knows how these matches tend to go. Breaking that curse is the step Frank needs to stay afloat.
