Wednesday night’s shock 2–2 draw between Arsenal and Wolverhampton Wanderers sparked wild celebrations on the blue side of Manchester.
Tom Edozie’s 94th-minute strike means, for the first time in months, Manchester City are back in control of their own Premier League title ambitions. Pep Guardiola now knows that his team will be crowned champions if they win all of their remaining fixtures, including a tense battle with Arsenal in April.
History has shown us how strong City are down the stretch, while Arsenal have faced accusations of weak mentalities and an inability to deal with the pressure that comes with a title race.
Points Won in Final 12 Premier League Games
|
Season |
Arsenal |
Man City |
|---|---|---|
|
2021–22 |
18 |
30 |
|
2022–23 |
21 |
31 |
|
2023–24 |
31 |
32 |
|
2024–25 |
21 |
27 |
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal tenure, which began in 2019, has been plagued by massive slumps in the final few months of the season.
Indeed, over three of the last four years, Arsenal have endured shocking drop-offs compared to the teams around them. Even their strongest year, 2023–24, came up short against a City side whose ruthless search for glory tends to intensify at this point in the season.
Beginning in the 2021–22 season, Arsenal won just six of their final 12 games, losing the other six and ultimately missing out on Champions League qualification by a narrow margin of two points. Tottenham Hotspur, who snatched fourth spot, beat the Gunners 3–0 with three games to go.
City, meanwhile, were locked in a race for the title with Liverpool, whose 10-game winning run meant Guardiola’s side had to be almost perfect to seal glory. 30 points from a possible 36 was enough to finish one point clear at the top.
The first year in which Arsenal made real title noise under Arteta was 2022–23. After 29 games, the Gunners were eight points clear of City, and it is here that the “bottle” accusations first began. Costly draws against West Ham United and bottom-side Southampton were followed by a 4–1 thumping at the hands of Guardiola’s men, who won 10 more points over the final 12 games to claim victory.
12 months later, Arsenal actually did their best to banish the narrative. 31 points from a possible 36 was the sort of form which had delivered the title to City in years prior, but Guardiola’s side managed to go one better. With 32 points, including one in a 0–0 draw with Arsenal, City were crowned champions in 2023–24.
Unfortunately for Arsenal, those familiar issues returned for the 2024–25 campaign. The one difference here, however, was that it was Liverpool sitting above them in the title race.
City had begun the slump which carried over into the current campaign and had given up hope of catching Liverpool, instead focused on cementing their spot in the top four. A return of 27 points from their final 12 games was comparatively poor, and yet still trumped Arsenal’s tally by six.
Liverpool, for their part, managed 23 points even after clearly losing interest once their title triumph was sealed—Arne Slot’s side did not win any of their last four games but still managed a 2–2 draw with Arsenal.
Pressure Rears Its Ugly Head
As has been regularly hypothesised, City do not seem to falter when the pressure ramps up. Guardiola has a squad full of serial winners, himself included, who view lifting trophies as part of the job.
Not only can Arsenal not boast that history, but the Gunners are struggling under the ever-growing weight of taunts and criticism with each passing season. Despite still being in a position of advantage, Arsenal let their frustrations boil over against Wolves in a post-match scuffle sparked by Gabriel Jesus’s needlessly angry response to Yerson Mosquera’s celebrations.
Both teams find themselves in the same position heading into the final 12 games of the campaign. Thanks to April’s meeting between the two, both Arsenal and City are in control of their own destinies, knowing 12 wins would guarantee success regardless of how the other performs.
In reality, nothing has changed for Arsenal, who are still in a comfortable position as leaders with the added bonus of being able to draw that game against City—a privilege not extended to Guardiola’s side.
City have the edge in the record books, however. Guardiola is at his best in these moments and Arteta now faces another opportunity to prove he deserves to sit at the same table as his mentor.
