Thursday’s lone
Premier
League fixture is a gargantuan battle at the top of the table,
but which way will it go? We look ahead to the game with our
Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction and preview.
Arsenal
vs Liverpool: The Key Facts
- The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal overwhelming favourites to
defeat Liverpool on Thursday, with the Gunners boasting a 61.7% win
probability to the Reds’ 18.1%. - However, against no side have Arsenal lost more Premier League
games than they have against Liverpool, and the Reds are looking to
complete an eighth double over the Gunners following August’s 1-0
success at Anfield. - Bukayo Saka could become the first player in Arsenal’s league
history to score in four consecutive home games against
Liverpool.
After
Dominik Szoboszlai’s stunning free-kick guided Liverpool
to a 1-0 home win over Arsenal in
August, maintaining the champions’ perfect start to the Premier
League season, many would have expected January’s reverse fixture
to have title implications for both teams.
But following the Reds’ dismal run in the Autumn, 14 points
split these rivals ahead of Thursday’s meeting at the Emirates
Stadium, with the title only appearing a realistic aim for the
Gunners.
Mikel Arteta’s side could hardly have wished for a better start
to 2026. While Manchester City have dropped points twice since the
turn of the year, drawing 0-0 with Sunderland and 1-1 with Chelsea,
Arsenal battled to a topsy-turvy 3-2 victory at Bournemouth last
time out.
They now boast a six-point gap to both City and Aston Villa
going into Matchday 21, and the Opta
supercomputer rates their chances of winning the title at a
huge 85.7%. City only won the title in 10.9% of our season
simulations, with Villa doing so in 4.2% and Liverpool’s chances
now virtually non-existent at 0.07%.
Arsenal will know how City and Villa have got on before taking
to the field for their midweek fixture, but results elsewhere
notwithstanding, Arteta will see this meeting with the champions as
a crucial checkpoint for his side.
Arsenal have won their last two home Premier League matches
against the reigning champions, beating City in both 2023-24 and
2024-25. They last did so in three consecutive league seasons
between 1961-62 and 1963-64, when they beat Tottenham, Ipswich Town
and Everton.
And their home form has been excellent lately, winning their
last seven Premier League games at the Emirates. Only once under
Arteta have they enjoyed a longer such run, winning 10 straight
games on their own turf between April and December 2022.
Arsenal excelled on the road versus Bournemouth, too, with
Declan
Rice scoring his first Premier League brace in his 296th
appearance in the competition.
Gabriel Magalhães was also on target for the second straight
game, atoning for an error that gifted Evanilson
the opening goal of the contest.
Gabriel’s set-piece prowess could be a factor again on Thursday,
with Arne Slot highlighting Liverpool’s poor performance from dead
balls over the festive period. The Reds have shipped the joint-most
goals from set-pieces in the Premier League this season (13, level
with Bournemouth), with 46.4% of the goals they have conceded
coming via this route.
Arsenal, meanwhile, lead the league for goals (12, joint with
Leeds
United) and expected goals (9.9 xG) from set plays. Liverpool
have also struggled with attacking set-pieces, ranking 18th in the
division for xG from dead balls (4.7).
But the visitors will have to worry about more than free-kicks
and corners, with Bukayo
Saka having developed a knack for finding the net against
Liverpool in recent years.
He has scored in each of the Gunners’ last three home Premier
League games versus Liverpool. In their league history, no Arsenal
player has ever netted in four consecutive home league games
against Liverpool.
Slot’s side dropped two points at the death in Sunday’s 2-2 draw
with Fulham, as Harrison Reed’s rasping long-range strike beat
Alisson
in the seventh minute of second-half stoppage time, just three
minutes after Cody
Gakpo had put Liverpool 2-1 up.
Timed at 93 minutes and 53 seconds, Gakpo’s goal was the
fourth-latest on record (since 2006-07) that a side took the lead
in a Premier League match without then going on to win.
Gakpo has scored three Premier League goals away from home this
season, and all of those strikes have come in his last four league
appearances in London, netting at Chelsea, West Ham and Fulham. He
could now become only the second different Liverpool player to
score in four different away matches in London in a Premier League
season, after Mohamed
Salah did so in both 2017-18 and 2020-21.
Florian
Wirtz should also have a spring in his step after netting at
Craven Cottage, making it three goal involvements (two goals, one
assist) in his last four appearances in the competition, after he
failed to register a single goal contribution in his first 15.
Liverpool opted against risking Hugo
Ekitiké against Fulham after he suffered from discomfort in his
thigh, but Slot is hopeful of having the Frenchman available,
particularly with Salah still at the Africa Cup of Nations and
Alexander
Isak out for the long term.
Slot’s selection issues in attack could open the door for
Szoboszlai to play further forward, and only Bruno
Fernandes has been involved in more open-play sequences ending
in a shot (116) than his 103 in the Premier League this season.
But if those stats are adjusted to per 90 minutes, excluding
players to have played fewer than 1,000 minutes, Arsenal star Saka
is third with 6.4, only behind Jérémy
Doku (7.2) and Fernandes (7.1).
Arsenal
vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
This will be the first-ever Premier League game between Arsenal
and Liverpool to take place on a Thursday, with their last Thursday
league meeting coming at Anfield in December 1947 – that game
finished 3-1 to Arsenal.
Liverpool will become just the second team Arsenal have faced on
all seven days of the week in the Premier League, after
Southampton.
But against no side have Arsenal lost more Premier League games
than they have against Liverpool (26, level with Manchester
United).
And Liverpool could complete their eight double over Arsenal in
the Premier League era, with their seven season doubles already the
most any team has achieved over the Gunners.
Arsenal have also conceded in each of their last 20 Premier
League games against Liverpool since a goalless draw in August
2015. Only against Man Utd (30 between 1953 and 1968) and Tottenham
(24 between 1955 and 1967) have they ever had a longer run without
a clean sheet in their league history.
Arsenal
vs Liverpool Prediction
Despite Arsenal historically struggling in this fixture, the
Opta
supercomputer has given them its backing.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Arsenal were victorious in
61.7%, with Liverpool only winning in 18.1% and the remaining 20.2%
finishing level.
Arsenal
vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William
Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Piero Hincapié, Martin Ødegaard, Martín
Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Viktor
Gyökeres.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta.
Liverpool: Alisson Becker, Conor Bradley,
Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch,
Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Florian Wirtz, Curtis
Jones, Cody Gakpo.
Head coach: Arne Slot.
Opta
Power Rankings
The
Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They
assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams.
This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the
worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the
world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday night, here is the Opta Power
Ranking for both sides.
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